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We introduce the Hawkes process with renewal immigration and make its statistical estimation possible with two Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms. The standard Hawkes process introduces immigrant points via a Poisson process, and each…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-29 Spencer Wheatley , Vladimir Filimonov , Didier Sornette

The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Hyotae Kim , Athanasios Kottas

We consider finite systems of $N$ interacting neurons described by non-linear Hawkes processes in a mean field frame. Neurons are described by their membrane potential. They spike randomly, at a rate depending on their potential. In between…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Aline Duarte , Kadmo Laxa , Eva Löcherbach , Dasha Loukianova

In this paper, we use the Hawkes process to model the sequence of failure, i.e., events of compressor station and conduct survival analysis on various failure events of the compressor station. However, until now, nearly all relevant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Lu-ning Zhang , Jian-wei Liu , Xin Zuo

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

We study an exactly solvable random walk model with long-range memory on arbitrary networks. The walker performs unbiased random steps to nearest-neighbor nodes and intermittently resets to previously visited nodes in a preferential way,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-11 Ana Gabriela Guerrero-Estrada , Alejandro P. Riascos , Denis Boyer

Inductive bias refers to restrictions on the hypothesis class that enable a learning method to generalize effectively from limited data. A canonical example in control is linearity, which underpins low sample-complexity guarantees for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Zhuo Ouyang , Jixian Liu , Enrique Mallada

Computability, in the presence of asynchrony and failures, is one of the central questions in distributed computing. The celebrated asynchronous computability theorem (ACT) characterizes the computing power of the read-write shared-memory…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Guillermo Toyos-Marfurt , Petr Kuznetsov

We study the effect of imperfect memory on decision making in the context of a stochastic sequential action-reward problem. An agent chooses a sequence of actions which generate discrete rewards at different rates. She is allowed to make…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-20 Kuang Xu , Se-Young Yun

We introduce a family of particle systems on sparse graphs where local interactions occur via hitting times, providing a dynamic and tractable model for default cascades in large sparsely-connected financial networks. Building on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Yucheng Guo , Qinxin Yan

In the mammalian brain, newly acquired memories depend on the hippocampus for maintenance and recall, but over time the neocortex takes over these functions, rendering memories hippocampus-independent. The process responsible for this…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-02 Peter Helfer , Thomas R. Shultz

Many properties of perceptual decision making are well-modeled by deep neural networks. However, such architectures typically treat decisions as instantaneous readouts, overlooking the temporal dynamics of the decision process. We present…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-25 Hayden R. Johnson , Anastasia N. Krouglova , Hadi Vafaii , Jacob L. Yates , Pedro J. Gonçalves

How should we gather information to make effective decisions? We address Bayesian active learning and experimental design problems, where we sequentially select tests to reduce uncertainty about a set of hypotheses. Instead of minimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-25 Shervin Javdani , Yuxin Chen , Amin Karbasi , Andreas Krause , J. Andrew Bagnell , Siddhartha Srinivasa

The Poincar\'e recurrence theorem shows that conservative systems in a bounded region of phase space eventually return arbitrarily close to their initial state after a finite amount of time. An analogous behavior occurs in certain quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Amit Anand , Dinesh Valluri , Jack Davis , Shohini Ghose

Bidimensional spiking models currently gather a lot of attention for their simplicity and their ability to reproduce various spiking patterns of cortical neurons, and are particularly used for large network simulations. These models…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2012-11-07 Jonathan Touboul

Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-05 Eric C. Hall , Rebecca M. Willett

This paper investigates the controllability of a broad class of recurrent neural networks widely used in theoretical neuroscience, including models of large-scale human brain dynamics. Motivated by emerging applications in non-invasive…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-29 Cyprien Tamekue , Ruiqi Chen , ShiNung Ching

Sequence memory is an essential attribute of natural and artificial intelligence that enables agents to encode, store, and retrieve complex sequences of stimuli and actions. Computational models of sequence memory have been proposed where…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Hamza Tahir Chaudhry , Jacob A. Zavatone-Veth , Dmitry Krotov , Cengiz Pehlevan

We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-17 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

We propose a self-organizing memory architecture for perceptual experience, capable of supporting autonomous learning and goal-directed problem solving in the absence of any prior information about the agent's environment. The architecture…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-02-24 Dan P. Guralnik , Daniel E. Koditschek