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Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
We formulate and prove a {\it Local Stable Manifold Theorem\/} for stochastic differential equations (sde's) that are driven by spatial Kunita-type semimartingales with stationary ergodic increments. Both Stratonovich and It\^o-type…
A probabilistic framework is proposed for the optimization of efficient switched control strategies for physical systems dominated by stochastic excitation. In this framework, the equation for the state trajectory is replaced with an…
A general formulation of stochastic thermodynamics is presented for open systems exchanging energy and particles with multiple reservoirs. By introducing a partition in terms of "macrostates" (e.g. sets of "microstates"), the consequence on…
We study collective self-organization of weakly magnetic active suspensions in a uniform external field by analyzing a mesoscopic continuum model that we have recently developed. Our model is based on a Smoluchowski equation for a particle…
For a class of linear switched systems in continuous time a controllability condition implies that state feedbacks allow to achieve almost sure stabilization with arbitrary exponential decay rates. This is based on the Multiplicative…
In the course of computer modeling of the most probable stationary macrostates of non-ergodic closed systems, a forecast was obtained about the existence of limits of applicability of the basic axiomatic postulate of statistical physics,…
Weather and climate forecasts are inherently uncertain due to chaotic dynamics, imperfect initial conditions, and incomplete representation of the underlying physical processes. Operational ensemble forecasts aim to represent these…
A state-based micropolar peridynamic theory for linear elastic solids is proposed. The main motivation is to introduce additional micro-rotational degrees of freedom to each material point and thus naturally bring in the physically relevant…
Classical hydrodynamics rests on the point-particle idealization, leading to parabolic transport equations, infinite signal speeds, and the inability to capture finite time relaxation, anisotropic transport, or non Fourier thermal…
Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…
In the process of analyzing the axiomatic principles underlying statistical physics, when modeling the most probable stationary macrostates of non-ergodic closed systems, a forecast was obtained about a possible limitation purview of the…
We propose and solve a simple model describing secondary structure formation in random hetero-polymers. It describes monomers with a combination of one-dimensional short-range interactions (representing steric forces and hydrogen bonds) and…
Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
Staircase formation and layering is studied in simplified, potential vorticity conserving models of plasmas and geophysical fluids, by investigating turbulent self-organisation and nonlinear saturation with different mechanisms of free…
The time evolution of a homogeneous bidisperse granular suspension is studied in the context of the Enskog kinetic equation. The influence of the surrounding viscous gas on the solid particles is modeled via a deterministic viscous drag…
Characterising the stratosphere as a turbulent system, temporal fluctuations often show different correlations for different time scales as well as intermittent behaviour that cannot be captured by a single scaling exponent. In this study,…
In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems…
We discuss the probability distribution of relative speed $\Delta V$ of inertial particles suspended in a highly turbulent gas when the Stokes numbers, a dimensionless measure of their inertia, is large. We identify a mechanism giving rise…