Related papers: State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratos…
Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly influence tropospheric weather and climate, and understanding these variations can guide stratospheric aircraft development and operations. Despite a century of progress,…
Classifying the stratospheric polar vortex provides predictability for surface weather on extended-range timescales. However, providing a scientifically sound classification is challenging: all the definitions proposed in over 60 years of…
Vortex-split sudden stratospheric warmings (S-SSWs) are investigated by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), a spherical barotropic quasi-geostrophic (QG) model, and equilibrium statistical mechanics. The QG model reproduces well…
This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for…
Extreme-event predictability in turbulence is strongly state dependent, yet event-by-event predictability horizons are difficult to quantify without access to governing equations or costly perturbation ensembles. Here we train an…
A noisy stabilized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation is analyzed by stochastic decomposition. For values of control parameter for which periodic stationary patterns exist, the dynamics can be decomposed into diffusive and transverse parts which…
The problem of the insensitivity of the macroscopic behavior of any thermodynamical system to partitioning generates a bias between the reproducibility of its macroscopic behavior viewed as the simplest form of causality and its long-term…
The recent work of Siegelman \& Young (PNAS, vol. 120(44), 2023, pp. e2308018120) revealed two extreme states reached by the evolution of unforced and weakly-damped two-dimensional turbulence above random rough topography, separated by a…
Recently, an Enskog-type kinetic theory for Vicsek-type models for self-propelled particles has been proposed [T. Ihle, Phys. Rev. E 83, 030901 (2011)]. This theory is based on an exact equation for a Markov chain in phase space and is not…
Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other…
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are key sources of subseasonal predictability and major drivers of extreme weather in winter. Accurate and efficient probabilistic forecasting of these events remains a persistent challenge for Numerical…
The steady response of the stratosphere to a sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is considered in two separate theoretical models. It is first shown that anomalies in SST impose a geopotential anomaly at the tropopause. Solutions to the…
This paper constructs a solvability theory for a system of stochastic partial differential equations. On account of the Kolmogorov continuity theorem, solutions are looked for in certain H\"older-type classes in which a random field is…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
Stochastic Structural Stability Theory (SSST) provides an autonomous, deterministic, nonlinear dynamical system for evolving the statistical mean state of a turbulent system. In this work SSST is applied to the problem of understanding the…
Recent experiments on superfluid $^3$He in globally anisotropic aerogels have shown realization of the polar superfluid phase and of the half-quantum vortices (HQVs) in this phase upon rotation. To clarify why the HQVs, which had not been…
Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…