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We propose Adaptive Randomized Smoothing (ARS) to certify the predictions of our test-time adaptive models against adversarial examples. ARS extends the analysis of randomized smoothing using $f$-Differential Privacy to certify the adaptive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Saiyue Lyu , Shadab Shaikh , Frederick Shpilevskiy , Evan Shelhamer , Mathias Lécuyer

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Convolutional networks (ConvNets) have achieved promising accuracy for various anatomical segmentation tasks. Despite the success, these methods can be sensitive to data appearance variations. Considering the large variability of scans…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Yuan Liang , Weinan Song , Jiawei Yang , Liang Qiu , Kun Wang , Lei He

Most machine learning-based image segmentation models produce pixel-wise confidence scores that represent the model's predicted probability for each class label at every pixel. While this information can be particularly valuable in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Bruno Viti , Elias Karabelas , Martin Holler

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Understanding the vulnerability of large-scale pre-trained vision-language models like CLIP against adversarial attacks is key to ensuring zero-shot generalization capacity on various downstream tasks. State-of-the-art defense mechanisms…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Fan Yang , Mingxuan Xia , Sangzhou Xia , Chicheng Ma , Hui Hui

While Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, guaranteeing conditional coverage remains a central challenge. Although finite-sample, distribution-free conditional validity is known to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Félix Laplante

Industrial multi-label document understanding pipelines score candidate labels and threshold or rank them to form a label set per document. This early selection step directly affects the accuracy of downstream information extraction from…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Lasal Jayawardena , Nirmalie Wiratunga , Ikechukwu Nkisi-Orji , Darren Nicol

Automated radiology report drafting (ARRD) using vision-language models (VLMs) has advanced rapidly, yet most systems lack explicit uncertainty estimates, limiting trust and safe clinical deployment. We propose CONRep, a model-agnostic…

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

The regulatory approval and broad clinical deployment of medical AI have been hampered by the perception that deep learning models fail in unpredictable and possibly catastrophic ways. A lack of statistically rigorous uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-07 Charles Lu , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stuart Pomerantz

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Wang , Surbhi Goel

This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of conformal prediction methods on a challenging aerial image dataset featuring diverse events in unconstrained environments. Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc technique that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Hua Xu , Julián D. Arias-Londoño , Juan I. Godino-Llorente

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye

The deployment of Machine Learning models intraoperatively for tissue characterisation can assist decision making and guide safe tumour resections. For image classification models, pixel attribution methods are popular to infer…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Alfie Roddan , Chi Xu , Serine Ajlouni , Irini Kakaletri , Patra Charalampaki , Stamatia Giannarou

Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) are widely used to infer conditional dependence structures in high-dimensional data. However, standard precision matrix estimators are highly sensitive to data contamination, such as extreme outliers and…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-25 Canruo Shen , Xintong Ji , Qiong Li , Wenzhi Yang , Xiaoping Shi

Egocentric pose estimation for Augmented Reality (AR) and assistive devices requires not just accurate predictions but guaranteed uncertainty regions. Conformal prediction (CP) provides such guarantees without retraining, but we show that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Aishani Pathak , Hasti Seifi

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou
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