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A key assumption of the differences-in-differences designs is that the average evolution of untreated potential outcomes is the same across different treatment cohorts: a parallel trends assumption. In this paper, we relax the parallel…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-10 Myungkou Shin

In causal inference, a variety of causal effect estimands have been studied, including the sample, uncensored, target, conditional, optimal subpopulation, and optimal weighted average treatment effects. Ad-hoc methods have been developed…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-18 Nathan Kallus , Michele Santacatterina

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data plays a crucial role in areas such as e-commerce, healthcare, and economics. Existing studies mainly rely on the strong ignorability assumption that there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Chuan Zhou , Yaxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Haiteng Zhang , Haoxuan Li , Mingming Gong

Multistate process data are common in studies of chronic diseases such as cancer. These data are ideal for precision medicine purposes as they can be leveraged to improve more refined health outcomes, compared to standard survival outcomes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-28 Giorgos Bakoyannis

We introduce an algorithm for identifying interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects, given an estimate of individual or conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Subgroups are characterized by ``rule sets'' --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Albert Chiu

This paper studies nonparametric local (over-)identification and the semiparametric efficiency in modern causal frameworks. We develop a unified approach that begins by translating structural models with latent variables into their induced…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-02 Xiaohong Chen , Haitian Xie

This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Steve Hanks , David Madigan , Jonathan Gavrin

Structural econometric methods are often criticized for being sensitive to functional form assumptions. We study parametric estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE) derived from a widely used class of latent threshold…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 Patrick Kline , Christopher R. Walters

The potential outcomes framework serves as a fundamental tool for quantifying causal effects. The average dose-response function (also called the effect curve), denoted as (\mu(t)), is typically of interest when dealing with a continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Juraj Bodik

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Suraj Biswas , Saurav Gupta , Pritam Mukherjee

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Time series forecasting has become increasingly critical in real-world scenarios, where future sequences are influenced not only by historical patterns but also by forthcoming events. In this context, forecasting must dynamically adapt to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Shuqi Gu , Yongxiang Zhao , Baoyu Jing , Kan Ren

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

Early diagnosis of diseases holds the potential for deep transformation in healthcare by enabling better treatment options, improving long-term survival and quality of life, and reducing overall cost. With the advent of medical big data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Tim Schubert , Richard W Peck , Alexander Gimson , Camelia Davtyan , Mihaela van der Schaar

In failure-time settings, a competing risk event is any event that makes it impossible for the event of interest to occur. For example, cardiovascular disease death is a competing event for prostate cancer death because an individual cannot…

Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani

It is common in medical studies that the outcome of interest is truncated by death, meaning that a subject has died before the outcome could be measured. In this case, restricted analysis among survivors may be subject to selection bias.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-25 Linbo Wang , Xiao-Hua Zhou , Thomas S. Richardson

Current status data are commonly encountered in medical and epidemiological studies in which the failure time for study units is the outcome variable of interest. Data of this form are characterized by the fact that the failure time is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-25 Yan Liu , Minggen Lu , Christopher S. McMahan

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár