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Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel

Uncertainty estimation in machine learning has traditionally focused on the prediction stage, aiming to quantify confidence in model outputs while treating learned representations as deterministic and reliable by default. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Yiyao Yang

In this paper, we advocate for representation learning as the key to mitigating unfair prediction outcomes downstream. Motivated by a scenario where learned representations are used by third parties with unknown objectives, we propose and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-23 David Madras , Elliot Creager , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

The fairness in machine learning is getting increasing attention, as its applications in different fields continue to expand and diversify. To mitigate the discriminated model behaviors between different demographic groups, we introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Taeuk Jang , Pengyi Shi , Xiaoqian Wang

When used in complex engineered systems, such as communication networks, artificial intelligence (AI) models should be not only as accurate as possible, but also well calibrated. A well-calibrated AI model is one that can reliably quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-04 John C. Duchi

Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Darren Xu , Kuang-Chih Lee

Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms developed in the 1990's by Gammerman, Vovk, and their research team, to provide set predictions with guaranteed confidence level. Over recent years, they have grown in popularity and have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Anthony Bellotti , Xindi Zhao

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

In real-world settings involving consequential decision-making, the deployment of machine learning systems generally requires both reliable uncertainty quantification and protection of individuals' privacy. We present a framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Tijana Zrnic , Michael I. Jordan

The field of distribution-free predictive inference provides tools for provably valid prediction without any assumptions on the distribution of the data, which can be paired with any regression algorithm to provide accurate and reliable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-19 Michael Bian , Rina Foygel Barber

As machine learning (ML) based systems are adopted in domains such as law enforcement, criminal justice, finance, hiring and admissions, ensuring the fairness of ML aided decision-making is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-30 Meiyu Zhong , Ravi Tandon

Conformal prediction quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by augmenting point predictions with valid prediction sets. For complex scenarios involving multiple trials, models, or data sources, conformal prediction sets can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Gina Wong , Drew Prinster , Suchi Saria , Rama Chellappa , Anqi Liu

We present an optimization framework for learning a fair classifier in the presence of noisy perturbations in the protected attributes. Compared to prior work, our framework can be employed with a very general class of linear and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 L. Elisa Celis , Lingxiao Huang , Vijay Keswani , Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

Fairness in machine learning research has largely focused on outcome-oriented fairness criteria such as Equalized Odds, while comparatively less attention has been given to procedural-oriented fairness, which addresses how a model arrives…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Gideon Popoola , John Sheppard

Striking an optimal balance between predictive performance and fairness continues to be a fundamental challenge in machine learning. In this work, we propose a post-processing framework that facilitates fairness-aware prediction by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Zhouting Zhao , Tin Lok James Ng

Increasing concerns about disparate effects of AI have motivated a great deal of work on fair machine learning. Existing works mainly focus on independence- and separation-based measures (e.g., demographic parity, equality of opportunity,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-07 Xianli Zeng , Edgar Dobriban , Guang Cheng

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-24 Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Emmanuel J. Candès

When using machine learning to aid decision-making, it is critical to ensure that an algorithmic decision is fair and does not discriminate against specific individuals/groups, particularly those from underprivileged populations. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-20 Yifei Wang , Zhengyang Zhou , Liqin Wang , John Laurentiev , Peter Hou , Li Zhou , Pengyu Hong