Related papers: Assessing and Mitigating Miscalibration in LLM-Bas…
Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own answers and find that they are systematically overconfident.…
Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose…
Generating confidence calibrated outputs is of utmost importance for the applications of deep neural networks in safety-critical decision-making systems. The output of a neural network is a probability distribution where the scores are…
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) hold considerable promise for applications in healthcare. However, their deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by two key limitations: (i) sensitivity to prompt design, and (ii) a…
Large language models (LLMs) are powerful zero- and few-shot learners. However, when predicting over a set of candidate options, LLMs suffer from label biases, and existing calibration methods overlook biases arising from multi-token class…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in statistical research and applications. However,they are also notorious for unreliable or biased information. Here, we explore whether LLMs can be used to improve the precision of…
Large language models (LLMs) often make accurate next token predictions but their confidence in these predictions can be poorly calibrated: high-confidence predictions are frequently wrong, and low-confidence predictions may be correct.…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have the impressive ability to perform in-context learning (ICL) from only a few examples, but the success of ICL varies widely from task to task. Thus, it is important to quickly determine whether ICL is…
Large language models (LLMs) make it easy to rewrite a text in any style -- e.g. to make it more polite, persuasive, or more positive -- but evaluation thereof is not straightforward. A challenge lies in measuring content preservation: that…
Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as promising solutions for a variety of medical and clinical decision support applications. However, LLMs are often subject to different types of biases, which can lead to unfair treatment of…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming writing, reading, teaching, and knowledge retrieval in many academic fields. However, concerns regarding their misuse and erroneous outputs have led to varying degrees of trust in LLMs within…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently enabled natural language interfaces that translate user queries into executable SQL, offering a powerful solution for non-technical stakeholders to access structured data. However, one of the…
Currently, there are thousands of large pretrained language models (LLMs) available to social scientists. How do we select among them? Using validity, reliability, reproducibility, and replicability as guides, we explore the significance…
Conversation forecasting tasks a model with predicting the outcome of an unfolding conversation. For instance, it can be applied in social media moderation to predict harmful user behaviors before they occur, allowing for preventative…
Scaling test-time computation with reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a reliable path to improve large language models (LLM) reasoning ability. Yet, outcome-based reward often incentivizes models to be overconfident, leading to…
Calibration, which establishes the correlation between accuracy and model confidence, is important for LLM development. We design three off-the-shelf calibration methods based on self-consistency (Wang et al., 2022) for math reasoning…
As large language models (LLMs) become more capable and agentic, the requirement for trust in their outputs grows significantly, yet at the same time concerns have been mounting that models may learn to lie in pursuit of their goals. To…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic systems, where a fundamental task is mapping user intents to relevant external tools. Errors in tool selection can have severe outcomes, such as unauthorized data access,…
Calibration, the alignment between model confidence and prediction accuracy, is critical for the reliable deployment of large language models (LLMs). Existing works neglect to measure the generalization of their methods to other prompt…