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By monitoring the time evolution of the most liquid Futures contracts traded globally as acquired using the Bloomberg API from 03 January 2000 until 15 December 2014 we were able to forecast the S&P 500 index beating the Buy and Hold…
This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active…
The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upward-sloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the…
We test the hypothesis that consecutive intraday price changes in the most liquid U.S. equity ETF (SPY) are conditionally nonrandom. Using NBBO event-time data for about 1,500 regular trading days, we form for every lag L ordered pairs of a…
This paper addresses the challenges faced in large-volume trading, where executing substantial orders can result in significant market impact and slippage. To mitigate these effects, this study proposes a volatility-volume-based order…
Although quantile regression to calculate risk measures has been widely established in the financial literature, when considering data observed at mixed--frequency, an extension is needed. In this paper, a model is suggested built on a…
We address the construction of Realized Variance (RV) forecasts by exploiting the hierarchical structure implicit in available decompositions of RV. By using data referred to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and to its constituents we…
Trade prices of about 1000 New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks are studied at one-minute time resolution over the continuous five year period 2018--2022. For each stock, in dollar-volume-weighted transaction time, the discrepancy from a…
This paper presents a continuous-time model of intraday trading, pricing, and liquidity with dynamic TWAP and VWAP benchmarks. The model is solved in closed-form for the competitive equilibrium and also for non-price-taking equilibria. The…
The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…
This paper proposes a computationally efficient framework, based on interval analysis, for rigorous verification of nonlinear continuous-time dynamical systems with neural network controllers. Given a neural network, we use an existing…
In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…
We report on a densely time sampled polarimetric flux density monitoring of the BL Lac object S5 0716+71 at 86 GHz and 229 GHz with the IRAM 30 m telescope within a coordinated broad spectral band campaign, centred around an INTEGRAL…
We consider estimation of the spot volatility in a stochastic boundary model with one-sided microstructure noise for high-frequency limit order prices. Based on discrete, noisy observations of an It\^o semimartingale with jumps and general…
Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and…
For classification of the high frequency trading quantities, waiting times, price increments within and between sessions are referred to as the a-, b-, and c-increments. Statistics of the a-b-c-increments are computed for the Time & Sales…
The prediction of a stock price has always been a challenging issue, as its volatility can be affected by many factors such as national policies, company financial reports, industry performance, and investor sentiment etc.. In this paper,…
This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…
Trend-following strategies underpin many systematic trading approaches yet struggle under nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes. We propose an LSTM-based framework to forecast next-day trend differences ($\Delta_t$) for the top 30 S\&P…