Related papers: Variational Inference for L\'evy Process-Driven SD…

We propose new jump-adapted weak approximation schemes for stochastic differential equations driven by pure-jump L\'evy processes. The idea is to replace the driving L\'evy process $Z$ with a finite intensity process which has the same…

Bayesian inference for inverse problems involves computing expectations under posterior distributions -- e.g., posterior means, variances, or predictive quantities -- typically via Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. When the quantity of interest…

We consider the problem of static Bayesian inference for partially observed Levy-process models. We develop a methodology which allows one to infer static parameters and some states of the process, without a bias from the…

We analyze a specific class of random systems that are driven by a symmetric L\'{e}vy stable noise. In view of the L\'{e}vy noise sensitivity to the confining "potential landscape" where jumps take place (in other words, to environmental…

In order to predict future performance of subsurface fluid reservoirs under possible operating scenarios, a dynamic, porous-medium flow simulation model must be tuned to include representative properties of the reservoir. Estimating…

We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

The large deviations theory for heavy-tailed processes has seen significant advances in the recent past. In particular, Rhee et al. (2019) and Bazhba et al. (2020) established large deviation asymptotics at the sample-path level for L\'evy…

Stochastic natural gradient variational inference (NGVI) is a popular and efficient algorithm for Bayesian inference. Despite empirical success, the convergence of this method is still not fully understood. In this work, we define and study…

We develop and analyze a general class of Euler-type numerical schemes for Levy-driven McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs), where the drift, diffusion and jump coefficients grow super-linearly in the state variable. These…

We exploit the observation that stochastic variational inference (SVI) is a form of annealing and present a modified SVI approach -- applicable to both large and small datasets -- that allows the amount of annealing done by SVI to be tuned.…

We describe an Euler scheme to approximate solutions of L\'evy driven Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) where the grid points are random and given by the arrival times of a Poisson process. This result extends a previous work of the…

We propose a unified framework that employs variational inference (VI) with (conditional) normalizing flows (NFs) to train both between-model and within-model proposals for reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, enabling efficient…

Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) were originally devised by It\^o to provide a pathwise construction of diffusion processes. A less explored approach to represent them is through Time Change Equations (TCEs) as put forth by Doeblin.…

We consider SDEs driven by multiplicative pure jump L\'{e}vy noises, where L\'evy processes are not necessarily comparable to $\alpha$-stable-like processes. By assuming that the SDE has a unique solution, we obtain gradient estimates of…

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It…

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Many time series are effectively generated by a combination of deterministic continuous flows along with discrete jumps sparked by stochastic events. However, we usually do not have the equation of motion describing the flows, or how they…

nsEVDx is an open-source Python package for fitting stationary and nonstationary Extreme Value Distributions (EVDs) to extreme value data. It can be used to model extreme events in fields like hydrology, climate science, finance, and…

This thesis develops a new framework for modelling price processes in finance, such as an equity price or foreign exchange rate. This can be related to the conventional Ito calculus-based framework through the time integral of a price's…