Related papers: Variational Inference for L\'evy Process-Driven SD…
We develop a scale-invariant truncated L\'evy (STL) process to describe physical systems characterized by correlated stochastic variables. The STL process exhibits L\'evy stability for the probability density, and hence shows scaling…
Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
Calibrating a L\'evy process usually requires characterizing its jump distribution. Traditionally this problem can be solved with nonparametric estimation using the empirical characteristic functions (ECF), assuming certain regularity, and…
In this work, we explore modeling change points in time-series data using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs). We propose a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder (VAE)…
We propose an effective explicit numerical scheme for simulating solutions of stochastic differential equations with confining superlinear drift terms, driven by multiplicative heavy-tailed L\'evy noise. The scheme is designed to prevent…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a flexible framework for modeling temporal dynamics in partially observed systems. A central task is to calibrate such models from data, which requires inferring latent trajectories and…
In this paper, we address rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed L\'evy processes with infinite activities. The presence of infinite activities poses a critical challenge, making it impractical to simulate or store the precise sample path…
We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…
Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDEs) model the drift and diffusion functions of a stochastic process as neural networks. While NSDEs are known to make accurate predictions, their uncertainty quantification properties have been…
Recently, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations has emerged as a powerful framework for modeling physical simulations without explicitly defining the ODEs governing the system, but instead learning them via machine learning. However, the…
By using absolutely continuous lower bounds of the L\'evy measure, explicit gradient estimates are derived for the semigroup of the corresponding L\'evy process with a linear drift. A derivative formula is presented for the conditional…
We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…
Gaussian processes with derivative information are useful in many settings where derivative information is available, including numerous Bayesian optimization and regression tasks that arise in the natural sciences. Incorporating derivative…
We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…
Semilinear, $N-$dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by additive L\'evy noise are investigated. Specifically, given $\alpha\in\left(\frac{1}{2},1\right)$, the interest is on SDEs driven by $2\alpha-$stable,…
It is well understood that, when numerically simulating SDEs with general noise, achieving a strong convergence rate better than $O(\sqrt{h})$ (where h is the step size) requires the use of certain iterated integrals of Brownian motion,…
We study high-dimensional drift estimation for L\'evy-driven Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes based on discrete observations. Assuming sparsity of the drift matrix, we analyze Lasso and Slope estimators constructed from approximate likelihoods…
Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian posterior inference is a common approach used in machine learning. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures that are used are often discrete-time analogues of associated stochastic differential equations…
I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach,…