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The instrumental-variables (IV) setting is standard for partial identification of causal effects when unobserved confounding makes point identification impossible. Existing approaches face methodological bottlenecks: closed-form bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Vahid Balazadeh , Hamidreza Kamkari , Medha Barath , Ricardo Silva , Rahul G. Krishnan

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

We explore the applicability of the causal analysis based on temporally shifted (lagged) Pearson correlation applied to diverse time series of different natures in context of the problem of financial market prediction. Theoretical…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-28 Anton Kolonin , Ali Raheman , Mukul Vishwas , Ikram Ansari , Juan Pinzon , Alice Ho

Causal reasoning is often challenging with spatial data, particularly when handling high-dimensional inputs. To address this, we propose a neural network (NN) based framework integrated with an approximate Gaussian process to manage spatial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Ziyang Jiang , Zach Calhoun , Yiling Liu , Lei Duan , David Carlson

Observational studies provide invaluable opportunities to draw causal inference, but they may suffer from biases due to pretreatment difference between treated and control units. Matching is a popular approach to reduce observed covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Xinran Li

Causality has the potential to truly transform the way we solve a large number of real-world problems. Yet, so far, its potential largely remains to be unlocked as causality often requires crucial assumptions which cannot be tested in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Jeroen Berrevoets , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Amortized analysis is a cost analysis technique for data structures in which cost is studied in aggregate: rather than considering the maximum cost of a single operation, one bounds the total cost encountered throughout a session.…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Harrison Grodin , Robert Harper

Robust causal discovery from observational data under imperfect prior knowledge remains a significant and largely unresolved challenge. Existing methods typically presuppose perfect priors or can only handle specific, pre-identified error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Zidong Wang , Xi Lin , Chuchao He , Xiaoguang Gao

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

This paper develops new methods for causal inference in observational studies on a single large network of interconnected units, addressing two key challenges: long-range dependence among units and the presence of general interference. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Jizhou Liu , Dake Zhang , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Causal relationships are normally discovered with designed experiments, e.g. randomised controlled trials, which, however are expensive or infeasible to be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Jiuyong Li , Saisai Ma , Thuc Duy Le , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu

Federated learning of causal estimands may greatly improve estimation efficiency by leveraging data from multiple study sites, but robustness to heterogeneity and model misspecifications is vital for ensuring validity. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Larry Han , Jue Hou , Kelly Cho , Rui Duan , Tianxi Cai

Survival analysis is crucial for many medical applications, but remains challenging for modern machine learning due to limited data, censoring, and the heterogeneity of tabular covariates. While the prior-fitted paradigm, which relies on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Dmitrii Seletkov , Paul Hager , Georgios Kaissis , Rickmer Braren , Daniel Rueckert , Raphael Rehms

Given a discriminating neural network, the problem of fairness improvement is to systematically reduce discrimination without significantly scarifies its performance (i.e., accuracy). Multiple categories of fairness improving methods have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Mengdi Zhang , Jun Sun

We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment restrictions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment restrictions, conditional moment restrictions pose serious challenges for causal inference, especially in…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-30 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Haruo Kakehi , Shota Yasui

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

Functional data is a powerful tool for capturing and analyzing complex patterns and relationships in a variety of fields, allowing for more precise modeling, visualization, and decision-making. For example, in healthcare, functional data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Xiyuan Gao , Jiayi Wang , Guanyu Hu , Jianguo Sun

Learning a causal directed acyclic graph from data is a challenging task that involves solving a combinatorial problem for which the solution is not always identifiable. A new line of work reformulates this problem as a continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Philippe Brouillard , Sébastien Lachapelle , Alexandre Lacoste , Simon Lacoste-Julien , Alexandre Drouin

In-context learning has become a popular paradigm in natural language processing. However, its performance can be significantly influenced by the order of in-context demonstration examples. In this paper, we found that causal language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Yanzheng Xiang , Hanqi Yan , Lin Gui , Yulan He

Causal mediation analysis is routinely conducted by applied researchers in a variety of disciplines. The goal of such an analysis is to investigate alternative causal mechanisms by examining the roles of intermediate variables that lie in…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-05 Kosuke Imai , Luke Keele , Teppei Yamamoto
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