Related papers: Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Predi…
Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The…
Hierarchical decision problems are often modeled as bilevel programs in which a leader commits to a policy and a follower responds optimally. When the follower's optimal response is nonunique, or when only near-optimal follower behavior can…
We introduce $\textbf{Slippage-at-Risk (SaR)}$, a quantitative framework for measuring liquidity risk in perpetual futures exchanges. Unlike backward-looking metrics such as Value-at-Risk computed on historical returns or realized deficit…
Prediction markets cannot exist without market makers, arbitrageurs, and other non-retail liquidity providers, yet the supply-side microstructure of Polymarket-class venues has not been characterized at on-chain pseudonymous-address scale.…
Real-time planning among many uncertain, dynamic obstacles is challenging because predicting every agent with high fidelity is both unnecessary and computationally expensive. We present Heterogeneous Predictor-based Risk-Aware Planning…
Rare-event prediction is critical in domains such as healthcare, finance, reliability engineering, customer support, aviation safety, where positive outcomes are infrequent yet potentially catastrophic. Extreme class imbalance biases…
Backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures are fragile when they ignore microstructure frictions and reuse evaluation windows during parameter search. We study four liquid perpetuals (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT) and quantify…
Deterministic black-box polynomial identity testing (PIT) for read-once oblivious algebraic branching programs (ROABPs) is a central open problem in algebraic complexity, particularly in the absence of variable ordering. Prior deterministic…
Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of…
Time-sensitive machine learning benefits from Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT), which provides an optimal stopping time for early classification of time series. However, in finite horizon scenarios, where input lengths are finite,…
Futures are contracts obligating the exchange of an asset at a predetermined date and price, notable for their high leverage and liquidity and, therefore, thrive in the Crypto market. RL has been widely applied in various quantitative…
We tackle average-reward infinite-horizon POMDPs with an unknown transition model but a known observation model, a setting that has been previously addressed in two limiting ways: (i) frequentist methods relying on suboptimal stochastic…
Probabilistic rounding error analysis can yield much sharper bounds than classical worst-case theory, but existing results typically rely on zero-mean rounding errors and often leave the confidence parameter implicit. This work revisits…
The series-parallel (active) redundancy allocation problem with mixed components (RAP) involves setting reliable objectives for components or subsystems to meet the resource consumption constraint, e.g., the total cost. RAP has been an…
Accurate and long-term spatiotemporal prediction for complex physical systems remains a fundamental challenge in scientific computing. While deep learning models, as powerful parametric approximators, have shown remarkable success, they…
We study infinite-horizon average-reward constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) under the unichain assumption and general policy parameterizations. Existing regret analyses for constrained reinforcement learning largely rely on…
Online reinforcement learning in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) remains less theoretically and algorithmically developed than its episodic counterpart, with many algorithms suffering from high ``burn-in'' costs and…
A large variety of real-world Reinforcement Learning (RL) tasks is characterized by a complex and heterogeneous structure that makes end-to-end (or flat) approaches hardly applicable or even infeasible. Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning…
The financial markets, which involve more than $90 trillion market capitals, attract the attention of innumerable investors around the world. Recently, reinforcement learning in financial markets (FinRL) has emerged as a promising direction…
Statistical performance bounds for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can be critical for high-stakes applications like healthcare. This paper introduces a new framework for theoretically measuring the performance of such algorithms…