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What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Why does a phenomenon occur? Addressing this question is central to most scientific inquiries and often relies on simulations of scientific models. As models become more intricate, deciphering the causes behind phenomena in high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Armin Kekić , Bernhard Schölkopf , Michel Besserve

Symbolic Regression (SR) enables the discovery of interpretable mathematical relationships from experimental and simulation data. These relationships are often coined descriptors which are defined as a fundamental materials property that is…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-02-10 Udaykumar Gajera , Mohsen Sotoudeh , Kanchan Sarkar , Axel Groß

It is shown that, in the non-relativistic limit, causal fermion systems give rise to an effective collapse theory. The nonlinear and stochastic correction terms to the Schr\"odinger equation are derived from the causal action principle. The…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2024-09-12 Felix Finster , Johannes Kleiner , Claudio F. Paganini

Recent critiques of Physics Education Research (PER) studies have revoiced the critical issues when drawing causal inferences from observational data where no intervention is present. In response to a call for a "causal reasoning primer",…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Vidushi Adlakha , Eric Kuo

Situational Graphs (S-Graphs) merge geometric models of the environment generated by Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) approaches with 3D scene graphs into a multi-layered jointly optimizable factor graph. As an advantage,…

Causal discovery is a major task with the utmost importance for machine learning since causal structures can enable models to go beyond pure correlation-based inference and significantly boost their performance. However, finding causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Andreas Sauter , Erman Acar , Vincent François-Lavet

Matching in causal inference from observational data aims to construct treatment and control groups with similar distributions of covariates, thereby reducing confounding and ensuring an unbiased estimation of treatment effects. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Sahil Shikalgar , Md. Noor-E-Alam

There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-02-08 Eleonora Granziera , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

Inverse problems, which involve estimating parameters from incomplete or noisy observations, arise in various fields such as medical imaging, geophysics, and signal processing. These problems are often ill-posed, requiring regularization…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-03 Shadab Ahamed , Eldad Haber

Causal representation learning seeks to extract high-level latent factors from low-level sensory data. Most existing methods rely on observational data and structural assumptions (e.g., conditional independence) to identify the latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-26 Kartik Ahuja , Divyat Mahajan , Yixin Wang , Yoshua Bengio

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios…

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Emmanuel C. Chukwu , Rianne M. Schouten , Monique Tabak , Mykola Pechenizkiy

We develop a new algorithm for inference in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions that can accommodate big data and modern identification schemes. The key innovation of our approach is to move beyond…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-13 Jonas E. Arias , Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez , Daniel Rudolf , Minchul Shin

Standard diffusion models are flexible estimators of complex distributions, but they do not encode causal structures and therefore do not by themselves support causal analysis. We propose a causality-encoded diffusion framework that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Li Chen , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

We reconcile the two worlds of dense and sparse modeling by exploiting the positive aspects of both. We employ a factor model and assume {the dynamic of the factors is non-pervasive while} the idiosyncratic term follows a sparse vector…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-25 Jonas Krampe , Luca Margaritella

We propose a regularized factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows for sparsity in the factor loadings. In this framework, factors may only load on a subset of variables which simplifies the factor identification and…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-12-13 Maurizio Daniele , Julie Schnaitmann

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Simon Bing , Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge
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