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Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Zhiyuan Hu , Xinyang Lu , Yifei Li , Jie Fu , Junxian He , Bryan Hooi

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable emergent capabilities, transforming the execution of functional tasks by leveraging external tools for complex problems that require specialized processing or up-to-date data. While…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Wenjun Li , Dexun Li , Kuicai Dong , Cong Zhang , Hao Zhang , Weiwen Liu , Yasheng Wang , Ruiming Tang , Yong Liu

As frontier AI models are deployed in high-stakes decision pipelines, their ability to maintain metacognitive stability (knowing what they do not know, detecting errors, seeking clarification) under adversarial pressure is a critical safety…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Rahul Kumar

Robust reinforcement learning methods typically focus on suppressing unreliable experiences or corrupted rewards, but they lack the ability to reason about the reliability of their own learning process. As a result, such methods often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Zhipeng Zhang , Xiongfei Su , Kai Li

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic and multi-turn workflows where they are tasked to perform actions of significant consequence. In order to deploy them reliably and manage risky outcomes in these settings, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Arka Pal , Teo Kitanovski , Arthur Liang , Akilesh Potti , Micah Goldblum

LLM confidence calibration is often evaluated by comparing two signals: token-probability scores and verbalized confidence. These signals are sometimes treated as direct readouts of model uncertainty, but their comparison depends on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Hankyeol Kim , Pilsung Kang

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes decision-making contexts. While prior work has shown that LLMs exhibit cognitive biases behaviorally, whether these biases correspond to identifiable internal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Fan Huang , Songheng Zhang , Haewoon Kwak , Jisun An

Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) often demonstrate poor calibration, with their confidence scores misaligned with actual performance. While calibration has been extensively studied in models trained from scratch, the impact of LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Ziming Wang , Zeyu Shi , Haoyi Zhou , Shiqi Gao , Qingyun Sun , Jianxin Li

As large language models (LLMs) are adopted in an increasingly wide range of applications, user-model interactions have grown in both frequency and scale. Consequently, research has focused on evaluating the robustness of LLMs, an essential…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Jiahang He , Rishi Ramachandran , Neel Ramachandran , Aryan Katakam , Kevin Zhu , Sunishchal Dev , Ashwinee Panda , Aryan Shrivastava

The reliability of large language models (LLMs) is greatly compromised by their tendency to hallucinate, underscoring the need for precise identification of knowledge gaps within LLMs. Various methods for probing such gaps exist, ranging…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Raoyuan Zhao , Abdullatif Köksal , Ali Modarressi , Michael A. Hedderich , Hinrich Schütze

Integration of Large Language Models with search/retrieval engines has become ubiquitous, yet these systems harbor a critical vulnerability that undermines their reliability. We present the first systematic investigation of "chameleon…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Shivam Ratnakar , Sanjay Raghavendra

Traditional cognitive bias measurement tools are limited by narrow bias coverage, low ecological validity, and reliance on abstract self reports, constraining scenario based and human AI comparisons. We introduce the context based Cognitive…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Chengrui Zhou

LLMs are increasingly used as long-running conversational agents, yet every major benchmark evaluating their memory treats user information as static facts to be stored and retrieved. That's the wrong model. People change their minds, and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Praveen Kumar Myakala , Manan Agrawal , Rahul Manche

Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own answers and find that they are systematically overconfident.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Elliot L. Epstein , John Winnicki , Thanawat Sornwanee , Rajat Dwaraknath

Analogical reasoning tests a fundamental aspect of human cognition: mapping the relation from one pair of objects to another. Existing evaluations of this ability in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) overlook the ability to compose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Yongkang Du , Xiaohan Zou , Minhao Cheng , Lu Lin

As language models (LMs) become integral to fields like healthcare, law, and journalism, their ability to differentiate between fact, belief, and knowledge is essential for reliable decision-making. Failure to grasp these distinctions can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Mirac Suzgun , Tayfun Gur , Federico Bianchi , Daniel E. Ho , Thomas Icard , Dan Jurafsky , James Zou

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Jon-Paul Cacioli

Large language models have demonstrated impressive performance across a variety of reasoning tasks. However, their problem-solving ability often declines on more complex tasks due to hallucinations and the accumulation of errors within…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Weili Shi , Dongliang Guo , Lehan Yang , Tianlong Wang , Hanzhang Yuan , Sheng Li

Effective educational measurement relies heavily on the curation of well-designed item pools (i.e., possessing the right psychometric properties). However, item calibration is time-consuming and costly, requiring a sufficient number of…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Yunting Liu , Shreya Bhandari , Zachary A. Pardos

Large Language Models (LLMs) often rely on test-time scaling via parallel decoding (for example, 512 samples) to boost reasoning accuracy, but this incurs substantial compute. We introduce CoRefine, a confidence-guided self-refinement…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Chen Jin , Ryutaro Tanno , Tom Diethe , Philip Teare