Related papers: LGB+: A Macroeconomic Forecasting Road Test

Text-based financial networks are increasingly used to study cross-stock return predictability. A common approach constructs links from similarities in firms' disclosure embeddings, but such networks often contain spurious edges because…

Multi-step forecasting is often described through a simple rule of thumb: recursive strategies are said to have high bias and low variance, while direct strategies are said to have low bias and high variance. We revisit this belief by…

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has been the dominant optimization method for training deep neural networks due to its many desirable properties. One of the more remarkable and least understood quality of SGD is that it generalizes…

Gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) is a powerful and widely-used machine learning model, which has achieved state-of-the-art performance in many academic areas and production environment. However, communication overhead is the main…

We propose a new framework of XGBoost that predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable. In particular, XGBoostLSS models all moments of a parametric distribution (i.e., mean, location, scale and shape…

We treat projective dependency trees as latent variables in our probabilistic model and induce them in such a way as to be beneficial for a downstream task, without relying on any direct tree supervision. Our approach relies on Gumbel…

Probabilistic forecasts are essential for various downstream applications such as business development, traffic planning, and electrical grid balancing. Many of these probabilistic forecasts are performed on time series data that contain…

Residual Networks (ResNets) have become state-of-the-art models in deep learning and several theoretical studies have been devoted to understanding why ResNet works so well. One attractive viewpoint on ResNet is that it is optimizing the…

Time series forecasting remains a challenging task, particularly in the context of complex multiscale temporal patterns. This study presents LLM-Mixer, a framework that improves forecasting accuracy through the combination of multiscale…

Tree ensembles such as XGBoost are often preferred for discriminative tasks in mixed-type tabular data, due to their inductive biases, minimal hyperparameter tuning, and training efficiency. We argue that these qualities, when leveraged…

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence…

agtboost is an R package implementing fast gradient tree boosting computations in a manner similar to other established frameworks such as xgboost and LightGBM, but with significant decreases in computation time and required mathematical…

Conditional belief networks introduce stochastic binary variables in neural networks. Contrary to a classical neural network, a belief network can predict more than the expected value of the output $Y$ given the input $X$. It can predict a…

Strong Branching (SB) is a cornerstone of all modern branching rules used in the Branch-and-Bound (BnB) algorithm, which is at the center of Mixed-Integer Programming solvers. In its full form, SB evaluates all variables to branch on and…

Although the rise of large language models (LLMs) has introduced new opportunities for time series forecasting, existing LLM-based solutions require excessive training and exhibit limited transferability. In view of these challenges, we…

Boosting algorithms are frequently used in applied data science and in research. To date, the distinction between boosting with either gradient descent or second-order Newton updates is often not made in both applied and methodological…

Longitudinal processes often pose nonlinear change patterns. Latent basis growth models (LBGMs) provide a versatile solution without requiring specific functional forms. Building on the LBGM specification for unequally-spaced waves and…

We propose two algorithms for interpretation and boosting of tree-based ensemble methods. Both algorithms make use of mathematical programming models that are constructed with a set of rules extracted from an ensemble of decision trees. The…

We present a simple linear regression based approach for learning the weights and biases of a neural network, as an alternative to standard gradient based backpropagation. The present work is exploratory in nature, and we restrict the…

Recently, there has been growing interest in incorporating textual information into foundation models for time series forecasting. However, it remains unclear whether and under what conditions such multimodal integration consistently yields…