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Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), via their induced flow maps, provide a powerful framework to parameterize invertible transformations for the purpose of representing complex probability distributions. While such models have achieved…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Youssef Marzouk , Zhi Ren , Sven Wang , Jakob Zech

Differential equations (DEs) are commonly used to describe dynamic systems evolving in one (ordinary differential equations or ODEs) or in more than one dimensions (partial differential equations or PDEs). In real data applications the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-25 Gianluca Frasso , Jonathan Jaeger , Philippe Lambert

Modeling sequential patterns from data is at the core of various time series forecasting tasks. Deep learning models have greatly outperformed many traditional models, but these black-box models generally lack explainability in prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-23 Yingtao Luo , Chang Xu , Yang Liu , Weiqing Liu , Shun Zheng , Jiang Bian

We propose a new Neural Galerkin Normalizing Flow framework to approximate the transition probability density function of a diffusion process by solving the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation with an atomic initial distribution,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Riccardo Saporiti , Fabio Nobile

In this paper, we provide a multiscale perspective on the problem of maximum marginal likelihood estimation. We consider and analyse a diffusion-based maximum marginal likelihood estimation scheme using ideas from multiscale dynamics. Our…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-11 O. Deniz Akyildiz , Michela Ottobre , Iain Souttar

Causal discovery is a data-driven paradigm for analyzing complex systems, while physics-based models, such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provide mechanistic structure for real-world dynamical processes. Integrating these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Jianhong Chen , Naichen Shi , Xubo Yue

Modeling and predicting the dynamics of complex multiscale systems remains a significant challenge due to their inherent nonlinearities and sensitivity to initial conditions, as well as limitations of traditional machine learning methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Elias Al Ghazal , Jad Mounayer , Beatriz Moya , Sebastian Rodriguez , Chady Ghnatios , Francisco Chinesta

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) describe the evolution of random processes over space and time, but their solutions are often analytically intractable and computationally expensive to estimate. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Ísak Pétursson , María Óskarsdóttir

We propose a framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems based on generative modeling. Given observations of the system state over time, we formulate the forecasting problem as sampling from the conditional distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-29 Yifan Chen , Mark Goldstein , Mengjian Hua , Michael S. Albergo , Nicholas M. Boffi , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Learning continuous-time stochastic dynamics is a fundamental and essential problem in modeling sporadic time series, whose observations are irregular and sparse in both time and dimension. For a given system whose latent states and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Yingru Liu , Yucheng Xing , Xuewen Yang , Xin Wang , Jing Shi , Di Jin , Zhaoyue Chen

Normalizing flows transform a simple base distribution into a complex target distribution and have proved to be powerful models for data generation and density estimation. In this work, we propose a novel type of normalizing flow driven by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Ruizhi Deng , Bo Chang , Marcus A. Brubaker , Greg Mori , Andreas Lehrmann

Modeling dynamical systems and unraveling their underlying causal relationships is central to many domains in the natural sciences. Various physical systems, such as those arising in cell biology, are inherently high-dimensional and…

Normalizing flows and variational autoencoders are powerful generative models that can represent complicated density functions. However, they both impose constraints on the models: Normalizing flows use bijective transformations to model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-02 Didrik Nielsen , Priyank Jaini , Emiel Hoogeboom , Ole Winther , Max Welling

Stochasticity plays a key role in many biological systems, necessitating the calibration of stochastic mathematical models to interpret associated data. For model parameters to be estimated reliably, it is typically the case that they must…

In this work, we study the problem of learning partially observed linear dynamical systems from a single sample trajectory. A major practical challenge in the existing system identification methods is the undesirable dependency of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-09 Salar Fattahi

Stochastic diffusion is the noisy and uncertain process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly important as we attempt to…

We consider here probabilistic models of transportation flows. The main goal of this introduction is rather not to present various techniques for problem solving but to present some intuition to invent adequate and natural models having…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-24 V. A. Malyshev , A. A. Zamyatin

Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Brian L Trippe , Richard E Turner

We construct a reduced, data-driven, parameter dependent effective Stochastic Differential Equation (eSDE) for electric-field mediated colloidal crystallization using data obtained from Brownian Dynamics Simulations. We use Diffusion Maps…

Given (small amounts of) time-series' data from a high-dimensional, fine-grained, multiscale dynamical system, we propose a generative framework for learning an effective, lower-dimensional, coarse-grained dynamical model that is predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Sebastian Kaltenbach , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis