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To use machine learning in high stakes applications (e.g. medicine), we need tools for building confidence in the system and evaluating whether it is reliable. Methods to improve model reliability often require new learning algorithms (e.g.…

Time-series forecasts play a critical role in business planning. However, forecasters typically optimize objectives that are agnostic to downstream business goals and thus can produce forecasts misaligned with business preferences. In this…

Stock portfolio optimization is the process of continuous reallocation of funds to a selection of stocks. This is a particularly well-suited problem for reinforcement learning, as daily rewards are compounding and objective functions may…

This paper introduces a consistent estimator and rate of convergence for the precision matrix of asset returns in large portfolios using a non-linear factor model within the deep learning framework. Our estimator remains valid even in low…

Market indicators such as CPI and GDP have been widely used over decades to identify the stage of business cycles and also investment attractiveness of sectors given market conditions. In this paper, we propose a two-stage methodology that…

In safety-critical applications data-driven models must not only be accurate but also provide reliable uncertainty estimates. This property, commonly referred to as calibration, is essential for risk-aware decision-making. In regression a…

We consider an investor who seeks to maximize her expected utility derived from her terminal wealth relative to the maximum performance achieved over a fixed time horizon, and under a portfolio drawdown constraint, in a market with local…

Regression analysis is a standard supervised machine learning method used to model an outcome variable in terms of a set of predictor variables. In most real-world applications we do not know the true value of the outcome variable being…

Financial performance management is at the core of business management and has historically relied on financial ratio analysis using Balance Sheet and Income Statement data to assess company performance as compared with competitors. Little…

Advances in machine learning and the increasing availability of high-dimensional data have led to the proliferation of social science research that uses the predictions of machine learning models as proxies for measures of human activity or…

Many common estimators in machine learning and causal inference are linear smoothers, where the prediction is a weighted average of the training outcomes. Some estimators, such as ordinary least squares and kernel ridge regression, allow…

The availability of precise and accurate simulation is a limiting factor for interpreting and forecasting data in many fields of science and engineering. Often, one or more distinct simulation software applications are developed, each with…

We address challenges in variable selection with highly correlated data that are frequently present in finance, economics, but also in complex natural systems as e.g. weather. We develop a robustified version of the knockoff framework,…

Bias originates from both data and algorithmic design, often exacerbated by traditional fairness methods that fail to address the subtle impacts of protected attributes. This study introduces an approach to mitigate bias in machine learning…

Every prediction is ultimately used in a downstream task. Consequently, evaluating prediction quality is more meaningful when considered in the context of its downstream use. Metrics based solely on predictive performance often diverge from…

Accurate evaluation of forecasting models is essential for ensuring reliable predictions. Current practices for evaluating and comparing forecasting models focus on summarising performance into a single score, using metrics such as SMAPE.…

Volatility forecasting becomes challenging when market conditions shift and model performance varies across market states. Motivated by this instability, we develop a risk-sensitive specialist routing framework for ETF volatility…

We present a simple model that uses time series momentum in order to construct strategies that systematically outperform their benchmark. The simplicity of our model is elegant: We only require a benchmark time series and several related…

Long-range ensemble forecasts are typically verified as anomalies with respect to a lead-time dependent climatological mean to remove the influence of systematic biases. However, common methods for calculating anomalies result in…

In the context of advertising auctions, finding good reserve prices is a notoriously challenging learning problem. This is due to the heterogeneity of ad opportunity types and the non-convexity of the objective function. In this work, we…