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The uncertainty of classification outcomes is of crucial importance for many safety critical applications including, for example, medical diagnostics. In such applications the uncertainty of classification can be reliably estimated within a…

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Accept-reject based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have traditionally utilised acceptance probabilities that can be explicitly written as a function of the ratio of the target density at the two contested points. This feature is…

Bernoulli factory MCMC algorithms implement accept-reject Markov chains without explicit computation of acceptance probabilities, and are used to target posterior distributions associated with intractable likelihood models. Intractable…

Bayesian phylogenetics typically estimates a posterior distribution, or aspects thereof, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These methods integrate over tree space by applying local rearrangements to move a tree through its space as a…

We propose a general framework using spike-and-slab prior distributions to aid with the development of high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Our framework allows inference with a general quasi-likelihood function. We show that highly…

Many problems in the physical sciences, machine learning, and statistical inference necessitate sampling from a high-dimensional, multi-modal probability distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the ubiquitous tool for this…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Bayesian inference for phylogenetics is a gold standard for computing distributions of phylogenies. It faces the challenging problem of. moving throughout the high-dimensional space of trees. However, hyperbolic space offers a low…

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities, e.g., for applications…

When using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to perform inference for Bayesian clustering models, such as mixture models, the output is typically a sample of clusterings (partitions) drawn from the posterior distribution. In…

We consider Bayesian inference in sequential latent variable models in general, and in nonlinear state space models in particular (i.e., state smoothing). We work with sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, which provide a powerful…

We consider the simulation of Bayesian statistical inverse problems governed by large-scale linear and nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are standard techniques to solve such…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used for stochastic optimization, sampling, and integration of mathematical objective functions, in particular, in the context of Bayesian inverse problems and parameter estimation. For…

We consider the analysis of sets of categorical sequences consisting of piecewise homogeneous Markov segments. The sequences are assumed to be governed by a common underlying process with segments occurring in the same order for each…

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption,…

We introduce a framework for efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms targeting discrete-valued high-dimensional distributions, such as posterior distributions in Bayesian variable selection (BVS) problems. We show that many…

In this paper, we address the challenge of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms within the approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework, which often get trapped in local optima due to their inherent local exploration mechanism. We…