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Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present…

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Huaqing Zhang , Kaiyue Wen , Tengyu Ma

Neural scaling laws characterize how model performance improves as the model size scales up. Inspired by empirical observations, we introduce a resource model of neural scaling. A task is usually composite hence can be decomposed into many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Jinyeop Song , Ziming Liu , Max Tegmark , Jeff Gore

When training deep neural networks, a model's generalization error is often observed to follow a power scaling law dependent both on the model size and the data size. Perhaps the best known example of such scaling laws are for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Alex Havrilla , Wenjing Liao

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Leshem Choshen , Yang Zhang , Jacob Andreas

We study empirical scaling laws for transfer learning between distributions in an unsupervised, fine-tuning setting. When we train increasingly large neural networks from-scratch on a fixed-size dataset, they eventually become data-limited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Danny Hernandez , Jared Kaplan , Tom Henighan , Sam McCandlish

Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer severe catastrophic forgetting when adapted sequentially to new tasks in a continual learning (CL) setting. Existing approaches are fundamentally limited: replay-based methods are impractical and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Shristi Das Biswas , Yue Zhang , Anwesan Pal , Radhika Bhargava , Kaushik Roy

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, largely driven by high-quality web data used in pre-training. However, recent studies indicate this data source is rapidly depleting. Synthetic data emerges as a…

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Tamay Besiroglu , Ege Erdil , Matthew Barnett , Josh You

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Mustafa Shukor , Louis Bethune , Dan Busbridge , David Grangier , Enrico Fini , Alaaeldin El-Nouby , Pierre Ablin

Hoffman et al (2022)'s Chinchilla paper introduced the principle of compute-optimal scaling, laying a foundation for future scaling of language models. In the years since, however, valid concerns about Chinchilla have been raised: wide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Rylan Schaeffer , Noam Levi , Andreas Kirsch , Theo Guenais , Brando Miranda , Elyas Obbad , Sanmi Koyejo

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have been largely driven by scaling laws for individual models, which predict performance improvements as model parameters and data volume increase. However, the capabilities of any single LLM…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Dakuan Lu , Jiaqi Zhang , Cheng Yuan , Jiawei Shao , Xuelong Li

Empirically, large-scale deep learning models often satisfy a neural scaling law: the test error of the trained model improves polynomially as the model size and data size grow. However, conventional wisdom suggests the test error consists…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Licong Lin , Jingfeng Wu , Sham M. Kakade , Peter L. Bartlett , Jason D. Lee

Continual Pre-training (CPT) serves as a fundamental approach for adapting foundation models to domain-specific applications. Scaling laws for pre-training define a power-law relationship between dataset size and the test loss of an LLM.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-29 Lei Liu , Hao Zhu , Yue Shen , Zhixuan Chu , Jian Wang , Jinjie Gu , Kui Ren

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we…

We propose a novel scaling law for general-purpose decoder-only language models (LMs) trained on multilingual data, tackling the problem of balancing languages during multilingual pretraining. A primary challenge in studying multilingual…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-05 Yifei He , Alon Benhaim , Barun Patra , Praneetha Vaddamanu , Sanchit Ahuja , Parul Chopra , Vishrav Chaudhary , Han Zhao , Xia Song

While scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) during pre-training have been extensively studied, their behavior under reinforcement learning (RL) post-training remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a systematic empirical…

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. This allows us to accurately…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Itay Inbar , Luke Sernau

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Haowei Lin , Baizhou Huang , Haotian Ye , Qinyu Chen , Zihao Wang , Sujian Li , Jianzhu Ma , Xiaojun Wan , James Zou , Yitao Liang

Scaling laws guide the development of large language models (LLMs) by offering estimates for the optimal balance of model size, tokens, and compute. More recently, loss-to-loss scaling laws that relate losses across pretraining datasets and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Prasanna Mayilvahanan , Thaddäus Wiedemer , Sayak Mallick , Matthias Bethge , Wieland Brendel