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We consider the problem of designing a randomized experiment on a source population to estimate the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on a target population. We propose a novel approach which explicitly considers the target when designing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-07 My Phan , David Arbour , Drew Dimmery , Anup B. Rao

One size fits all approaches to medicine have become a thing of the past as the understanding of individual differences grows. The paper introduces a test for the presence of heterogeneity in treatment effects in a clinical trial.…

Objective: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are widely considered as gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of new health interventions. When treatment non-compliance is present in RCTs, the treatment effect in the subgroup of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-25 Theodosios Papazoglou , Ed Waddingham , Alastair Young

Matching has become the mainstream in counterfactual inference, with which selection bias between sample groups can be significantly eliminated. However in practice, when estimating average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) via…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-14 Boyang You , Kerry Papps

Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Jonas Schweisthal , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

Causal analyses for observational studies are often complicated by covariate imbalances among treatment groups, and matching methodologies alleviate this complication by finding subsets of treatment groups that exhibit covariate balance. It…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-26 Zach Branson

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are extensively utilized in various scientific disciplines, including epidemiology, ecology, and economics, with retrospective case-control studies being specific examples of such designs. Additionally, if…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Min Zeng , Zeyang Jia , Zijian Sui , Jinfeng Xu , Hong Zhang

The Automated Model Evaluation (AutoEval) framework entertains the possibility of evaluating a trained machine learning model without resorting to a labeled testing set. Despite the promise and some decent results, the existing AutoEval…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-23 Ru Peng , Qiuyang Duan , Haobo Wang , Jiachen Ma , Yanbo Jiang , Yongjun Tu , Xiu Jiang , Junbo Zhao

While randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating causal treatment effects, their limited sample sizes and restrictive criteria make it difficult to extrapolate to a broader population. Observational data, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Stephanie Riley , Ricardo Silva , Matthew Sperrin

This paper studies inference in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) and imperfect compliance of a binary treatment. In this context, we study inference on the LATE. As in Bugni et al. (2018,2019),…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-25 Federico A. Bugni , Mengsi Gao

Testing whether a variable of interest affects the outcome is one of the most fundamental problem in statistics and is often the main scientific question of interest. To tackle this problem, the conditional randomization test (CRT) is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Dae Woong Ham , Jiaze Qiu

We study how to efficiently estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) using adaptive experiments. In adaptive experiments, experimenters sequentially assign treatments to experimental units while updating treatment assignment probabilities…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Masahiro Kato , Takuya Ishihara , Junya Honda , Yusuke Narita

Conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE) can provide insight into the effect of a treatment beyond the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). This ability to provide information over multiple quantiles of the response makes CQTE…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 Josh Givens , Henry W J Reeve , Song Liu , Katarzyna Reluga

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can…

Randomized experiments are an excellent tool for estimating internally valid causal effects with the sample at hand, but their external validity is frequently debated. While classical results on the estimation of Population Average…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-13 Apoorva Lal , Wenjing Zheng , Simon Ejdemyr

The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Siyi Wang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), treatment is often assigned by stratified randomization. I show that among all stratified randomization schemes which treat all units with probability one half, a certain matched-pair design achieves…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-17 Yuehao Bai

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-25 Connor T. Jerzak , Ritwik Vashistha , Adel Daoud

Understanding how treatment effects vary across patient characteristics is essential for personalized medicine, yet randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often underpowered to detect heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). We propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Amir Asiaee , Chiara Di Gravio , Cole Beck , Yuting Mei , Samhita Pal , Jared D. Huling

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis
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