Related papers: RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Confo…
For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…
We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…
Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…
The reliable deployment of deep learning in medical imaging requires uncertainty quantification that provides rigorous error guarantees while remaining anatomically meaningful. Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful distribution-free…
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…
Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. We build upon the RKHS-based framework of Gibbs et al. (2023), which leverages families of covariate shifts to provide approximate…
Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…
We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for…
Safety is a critical concern in learning-enabled autonomous systems especially when deploying these systems in real-world scenarios. An important challenge is accurately quantifying the uncertainty of unknown models to generate provably…
Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…
Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…
Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…
Detecting anomalies in time series data is essential for the reliable operation of many real-world systems. Recently, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for anomaly detection. However, existing methods…
We present EARCP (Ensemble Auto-R\'egul\'e par Coh\'erence et Performance), a novel ensemble architecture that dynamically weights heterogeneous expert models based on both their individual performance and inter-model coherence. Unlike…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…
Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…