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Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam

We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 M. Sampson , K. S. Chan

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Charles Guille-Escuret , Eugene Ndiaye

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

This paper proposes a new method for finding the highest predictive density set or region, within the heteroscedastic regression framework. This framework enjoys the property that any highest predictive density set is a translation of some…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-09 Max Sampson , Kung-Sik Chan

We present a novel robust control framework for continuous-time, perturbed nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty that depends nonlinearly on both the state and control inputs. Unlike conventional approaches that impose structural…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-21 Sihang Wei , Melkior Ornik , Hiroyasu Tsukamoto

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

This article illustrates how indirect or prior information can be optimally used to construct a prediction region that maintains a target frequentist coverage rate. If the indirect information is accurate, the volume of the prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Peter Hoff

In the present study, the capabilities of a new Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model are explored with the paramount objective of reconstructing the temperature field of wall-bounded flows based on a limited set of measurement points…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-02-02 Victor Coppo Leite , Elia Merzari , Roberto Ponciroli , Lander Ibarra

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Predictions of global climate models typically operate on coarse spatial scales due to the large computational costs of climate simulations. This has led to a considerable interest in methods for statistical downscaling, a similar process…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Christina Winkler , Paula Harder , David Rolnick

Normalizing flow (NF) has gained popularity over traditional maximum likelihood based methods due to its strong capability to model complex data distributions. However, the standard approach, which maps the observed data to a normal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Hanze Dong , Shizhe Diao , Weizhong Zhang , Tong Zhang

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) aims to adapt the model trained on the labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain. In this paper, we present Prototypical Contrast Adaptation (ProCA), a simple and efficient contrastive learning…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-15 Zhengkai Jiang , Yuxi Li , Ceyuan Yang , Peng Gao , Yabiao Wang , Ying Tai , Chengjie Wang

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for constructing prediction regions at a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Liang Hong , Noura Raydan Nasreddine

Fair representation learning is an attractive approach that promises fairness of downstream predictors by encoding sensitive data. Unfortunately, recent work has shown that strong adversarial predictors can still exhibit unfairness by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Mislav Balunović , Anian Ruoss , Martin Vechev

Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-19 Jamil Fayyad , Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

High-density object counting in surveillance scenes is challenging mainly due to the drastic variation of object scales. The prevalence of deep learning has largely boosted the object counting accuracy on several benchmark datasets.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Muming Zhao , Jian Zhang , Chongyang Zhang , Wenjun Zhang

Uncertainty estimation in machine learning has traditionally focused on the prediction stage, aiming to quantify confidence in model outputs while treating learned representations as deterministic and reliable by default. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Yiyao Yang