Related papers: Retrieval Mechanisms Surpass Long-Context Scaling …
Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap:…
We develop an estimation methodology for a factor model for high-dimensional matrix-valued time series, where common stochastic trends and common stationary factors can be present. We study, in particular, the estimation of (row and column)…
The efficient processing of long context poses a serious challenge for large language models (LLMs). Recently, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a promising strategy for this problem, as it enables LLMs to make selective…
Recent studies have attempted to refine the Transformer architecture to demonstrate its effectiveness in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Despite surpassing many linear forecasting models with ever-improving performance, we…
Existing data-driven approaches in modeling and predicting time series data include ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Transformer-based models, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) and TCN (Temporal Convolutional Network). These…
Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has long been a key research focus. Traditionally, these studies assume a fixed number of variables, but in real-world applications, Cyber-Physical Systems often expand as new sensors are…
The long horizon forecasting (LHF) problem has come up in the time series literature for over the last 35 years or so. This review covers aspects of LHF in this period and how deep learning has incorporated variants of trend, seasonality,…
Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER) involves using a set of training time series to form a predictive model of a continuous response variable that is not directly related to the regressor series. The TSER archive for comparing…
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment…
Short fixed-length inputs are the main bottleneck of deep learning methods in long time-series forecasting tasks. Prolonging input length causes overfitting, rapidly deteriorating accuracy. Our research indicates that the overfitting is a…
Large language models (LLMs) often fail to scale their performance on long-context tasks performance in line with the context lengths they support. This gap is commonly attributed to retrieval failures -- the models' inability to identify…
Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since…
Time series reasoning is crucial to decision-making in diverse domains, including finance, energy usage, traffic, weather, and scientific discovery. While existing time series foundation models (TSFMs) can capture low-level dynamic patterns…
Probabilistic forecasting is essential for modern risk management, allowing decision-makers to quantify uncertainty in critical systems. This paper tackles this challenge using the volatile REFIT household dataset, which is complicated by a…
In this work, we introduce FLAME, a family of extremely lightweight and capable Time Series Foundation Models, which support both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting via generative probabilistic modeling, thus ensuring both…
Time series forecasting is crucial in many fields, yet current deep learning models struggle with noise, data sparsity, and capturing complex multi-scale patterns. This paper presents MFF-FTNet, a novel framework addressing these challenges…
In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values…
As Transformer-based models have achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks, Long-Term Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks have also received extensive attention in recent years. However, due to the inherent computational…
Test-time scaling (TTS), which involves dynamic allocation of compute during inference, offers a promising way to improve reasoning in large language models. While existing TTS methods work well, they often rely on long decoding paths or…
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated increasing capabilities due to their extensive pretraining on large volumes of diverse time series data. Consequently, the quality of time series data is crucial to TSFM performance,…