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Decision-making in building energy systems critically depends on the predictive accuracy of relevant time-series models. In scenarios lacking extensive data from a target building, foundation models (FMs) represent a promising technology…

An efficient customer service management system hinges on precise forecasting of service volume. In this scenario, where data non-stationarity is pronounced, successful forecasting heavily relies on identifying and leveraging similar…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Tianfeng Wang , Gaojie Cui

In long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks, an increasing number of models have acknowledged that discrete time series originate from continuous dynamic systems and have attempted to model their dynamical structures. Recognizing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Jiaxi Hu , Yuehong Hu , Wei Chen , Ming Jin , Shirui Pan , Qingsong Wen , Yuxuan Liang

While RAG has greatly enhanced LLMs, extending this paradigm to Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) remains a challenge. This is exemplified in the Predictive Maintenance of the Pressure Regulating and Shut-Off Valve (PRSOV), a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Kenny Ye Liang , Zhongyi Pei , Huan Zhang , Yuhui Liu , Shaoxu Song , Jianmin Wang

The prevailing Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm dominates Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) by forcing models to predict the entire future horizon in a single forward pass. While efficient, this rigid coupling of output and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jiaming Ma , Siyuan Mu , Ruilin Tang , Haofeng Ma , Qihe Huang , Zhengyang Zhou , Pengkun Wang , Binwu Wang , Yang Wang

The immense success of the Transformer architecture in Natural Language Processing has led to its adoption in Time Se ries Forecasting (TSF), where superior performance has been shown. However, a recent important paper questioned their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Musleh Alharthi , Kaleel Mahmood , Sarosh Patel , Ausif Mahmood

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate impressive zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. However, an important yet underexplored challenge is how to effectively finetune TSFMs on specific downstream tasks. While naive…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Afrin Dange , Sunita Sarawagi

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown promising zero-shot generalization across diverse forecasting tasks. However, their robustness to continual adaptation remains underexplored. In this work, we investigate the extent to which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Nouha Karaouli , Denis Coquenet , Elisa Fromont , Martial Mermillod , Marina Reyboz

Time-series forecasting has seen significant advancements with the introduction of token prediction mechanisms such as multi-head attention. However, these methods often struggle to achieve the same performance as in language modeling,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Panayiotis Christou , Shichu Chen , Xupeng Chen , Parijat Dube

Time series forecasting predicts future values from past data. In real-world settings, some anomalous events have lasting effects and influence the forecast, while others are short-lived and should be ignored. Standard forecasting models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Joel Ekstrand , Zahra Taghiyarrenani , Slawomir Nowaczyk

Advances in time-series forecasting are driving a shift from conventional machine learning models to foundation models (FMs) that are trained with generalized knowledge. However, existing FMs still perform poorly in the energy fields, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Rui Liang , Yang Deng , Donghua Xie , Fang He , Dan Wang

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Yufa Zhou , Yixiao Wang , Surbhi Goel , Anru R. Zhang

Introduction: Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) has gained significant attention in recent years. While various specialized designs exist for capturing temporal dependency, recent studies have shown that even a single linear layer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Zhe Li , Shiyi Qi , Yiduo Li , Zenglin Xu

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs),…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-25 Eghbal Rahimikia , Hao Ni , Weiguan Wang

While time series diffusion models have received considerable focus from many recent works, the performance of existing models remains highly unstable. Factors limiting time series diffusion models include insufficient time series datasets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Jingwei Liu , Ling Yang , Hongyan Li , Shenda Hong

The zero-shot capabilities of foundation models (FMs) for time series forecasting offer promising potentials in conformal prediction, as most of the available data can be allocated to calibration. This study compares the performance of Time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Sami Achour , Yassine Bouher , Duong Nguyen , Nicolas Chesneau

Scaling laws motivate the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that pre-train vast parameters and achieve remarkable zero-shot forecasting performance. Surprisingly, even after fine-tuning, TSFMs cannot consistently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Lifan Zhao , Yanyan Shen , Zhaoyang Liu , Xue Wang , Jiaji Deng

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, LLM-based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Xiaoyu Tao , Mingyue Cheng , Ze Guo , Shuo Yu , Yaguo Liu , Qi Liu , Shijin Wang

In Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), the lookback window is a critical hyperparameter often set arbitrarily, undermining the validity of model evaluations. We argue that the lookback window must be tuned on a per-task basis to…