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Inference of causality in time series has been principally based on the prediction paradigm. Nonetheless, the predictive causality approach may overlook the simultaneous and reciprocal nature of causal interactions observed in real world…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-10-24 Albert C. Yang , Norden E. Huang , Chung-Kang Peng

We present DMCD (DataMap Causal Discovery), a two-phase causal discovery framework that integrates LLM-based semantic drafting from variable metadata with statistical validation on observational data. In Phase I, a large language model…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Samarth KaPatel , Sofia Nikiforova , Giacinto Paolo Saggese , Paul Smith

This paper introduces temporal-conditioned normalizing flows (tcNF), a novel framework that addresses anomaly detection in time series data with accurate modeling of temporal dependencies and uncertainty. By conditioning normalizing flows…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 David Baumgartner , Helge Langseth , Kenth Engø-Monsen , Heri Ramampiaro

Recently the deep learning has shown its advantage in representation learning and clustering for time series data. Despite the considerable progress, the existing deep time series clustering approaches mostly seek to train the deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Ying Zhong , Dong Huang , Chang-Dong Wang

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Jiji Zhang , Joseph Ramsey , Ruben Sanchez-Romero , Clark Glymour , Bernhard Schölkopf

Most approaches for assessing causality in complex dynamical systems fail when the interactions between variables are inherently non-linear and non-stationary. Here we introduce Temporal Autoencoders for Causal Inference (TACI), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Josuan Calderon , Gordon J. Berman

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Yuxiao Cheng , Ziqian Wang , Tingxiong Xiao , Qin Zhong , Jinli Suo , Kunlun He

The increasing scale of graph datasets has significantly improved the performance of graph representation learning methods, but it has also introduced substantial training challenges. Graph dataset condensation techniques have emerged to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Huaming Du , Yijie Huang , Su Yao , Yiying Wang , Yueyang Zhou , Jingwen Yang , Jinshi Zhang , Han Ji , Yu Zhao , Guisong Liu , Hegui Zhang , Carl Yang , Gang Kou

Most existing multivariate time series forecasting methods adopt an all-to-all paradigm that feeds all variable histories into a unified model to predict their future values without distinguishing their individual roles. However, this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Xingyu Zhang , Hanyun Du , Zeen Song , Siyu Zhao , Changwen Zheng , Wenwen Qiang

Many large-scale applications can be elegantly represented using graph structures. Their scalability, however, is often limited by the domain knowledge required to apply them. To address this problem, we propose a novel Causal Temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Abigail Langbridge , Fearghal O'Donncha , Amadou Ba , Fabio Lorenzi , Christopher Lohse , Joern Ploennigs

The extraction of invariant causal relationships from time series data with environmental attributes is critical for robust decision-making in domains such as climate science and environmental monitoring. However, existing methods either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Ziruo Hao , Tao Yang , Xiaofeng Wu , Bo Hu

Modeling hierarchical latent dynamics behind time series data is critical for capturing temporal dependencies across multiple levels of abstraction in real-world tasks. However, existing temporal causal representation learning methods fail…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Zijian Li , Minghao Fu , Junxian Huang , Yifan Shen , Ruichu Cai , Yuewen Sun , Guangyi Chen , Kun Zhang

Constraint-based methods and noise-based methods are two distinct families of methods proposed for uncovering causal graphs from observational data. However, both operate under strong assumptions that may be challenging to validate or could…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Daria Bystrova , Charles K. Assaad , Julyan Arbel , Emilie Devijver , Eric Gaussier , Wilfried Thuiller

Time series generation (TSG) synthesizes realistic sequences and has achieved remarkable success. Among TSG, conditional models generate sequences given observed covariates, however, such models learn observational correlations without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Yutong Xia , Chang Xu , Yuxuan Liang , Li Zhao , Qingsong Wen , Roger Zimmermann , Jiang Bian

It is commonplace to encounter nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process may change over time or across domains. The nonstationarity presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-21 Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang , Jiji Zhang , Bernhard Schölkopf , Clark Glymour

Multivariate time-series analysis involves extracting informative representations from sequences of multiple interdependent variables, supporting tasks such as forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection. In real-world scenarios, these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Israel Zexer , Omri Azencot

Discovering causal relationships between different variables from time series data has been a long-standing challenge for many domains such as climate science, finance, and healthcare. Given the complexity of real-world relationships and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Wenbo Gong , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Nick Pawlowski

Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Daniel Waxman , Petar M. Djurić

With the increasing need of personalised decision making, such as personalised medicine and online recommendations, a growing attention has been paid to the discovery of the context and heterogeneity of causal relationships. Most existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-08-21 Saisai Ma , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Thuc Duy Le

We introduce Time-Conditioned Contraction Matching (TCCM), a novel method for semi-supervised anomaly detection in tabular data. TCCM is inspired by flow matching, a recent generative modeling framework that learns velocity fields between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Zhong Li , Qi Huang , Yuxuan Zhu , Lincen Yang , Mohammad Mohammadi Amiri , Niki van Stein , Matthijs van Leeuwen