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Supervised Machine Learning (SML) algorithms such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Neural Networks have become popular in recent years due to their increased predictive performance over traditional statistical methods. This is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-05 Linwei Hu , Jie Chen , Vijayan N. Nair , Agus Sudjianto

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christoph Kern , Michael Kim , Angela Zhou

This article proposes different tests for treatment effect heterogeneity when the outcome of interest, typically a duration variable, may be right-censored. The proposed tests study whether a policy 1) has zero distributional (average)…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-19 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

We provide a simple distribution regression estimator for treatment effects in the difference-in-differences (DiD) design. Our procedure is particularly useful when the treatment effect differs across the distribution of the outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Iván Fernández-Val , Jonas Meier , Aico van Vuuren , Francis Vella

Although there is now a large literature on policy evaluation and learning, much of the prior work assumes that the treatment assignment of one unit does not affect the outcome of another unit. Unfortunately, ignoring interference can lead…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-02 Yi Zhang , Kosuke Imai

We consider design-based causal inference for spatial experiments in which treatments may have effects that bleed out and feed back in complex ways. Such spatial spillover effects violate the standard ``no interference'' assumption for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-06 Ye Wang , Cyrus Samii , Haoge Chang , P. M. Aronow

The vast majority of literature on evaluating the significance of a treatment effect based on observational data has been confined to discrete treatments. These methods are not applicable to drawing inference for a continuous treatment,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Charles R. Doss , Guangwei Weng , Lan Wang , Ira Moscovice , Tongtan Chantarat

Researchers and practitioners often wish to measure treatment effects in settings where units interact via markets and recommendation systems. In these settings, units are affected by certain shared states, like prices, algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Chris Hays , Manish Raghavan

Randomized trials are typically designed to detect average treatment effects but often lack the statistical power to uncover individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity, limiting their value for personalized decision-making. To address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-19 Rickard Karlsson , Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jesse H. Krijthe

Many statistical estimands of interest (e.g., in regression or causality) are functions of the joint distribution of multiple random variables. But in some applications, data is not available that measures all random variables on each…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Yicong Jiang , Lucas Janson

Interference occurs when the treatment (or exposure) of one individual affects the outcomes of others. In some settings it may be reasonable to assume individuals can be partitioned into clusters such that there is no interference between…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-21 Lan Liu , Michael G. Hudgens , Bradley Saul , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Peng Wu , Zhiqiang Tan , Wenjie Hu , Xiao-Hua Zhou

Modern causal decision-making increasingly demands individualized treatment-effect estimation in networks where interventions are high-dimensional, combinatorial vectors. While network interference, effect heterogeneity, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yunping Lu , Haoang Chi , Qirui Hu , Zhiheng Zhang

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

In recent years, the development of technologies for causal inference with privacy preservation of distributed data has gained considerable attention. Many existing methods for distributed data focus on resolving the lack of subjects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 Yuji Kawamata , Ryoki Motai , Yukihiko Okada , Akira Imakura , Tetsuya Sakurai

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mihaela van der Schaar

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

Correctly identifying treatment effects in observational studies is very difficult due to the fact that the outcome model or the treatment assignment model must be correctly specified. Taking advantages of semiparametric models in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Jichang Yu , Haibo Zhou , Jianwen Cai

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos
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