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We develop a linear response framework for interpretability that treats a neural network as a Bayesian statistical mechanical system. A small perturbation of the data distribution, for example shifting the Pile toward GitHub or legal text,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Garrett Baker , George Wang , Jesse Hoogland , Daniel Murfet

Susceptibilities are a technique for neural network interpretability that studies the response of posterior expectation values of observables to perturbations of the loss. We generalize this construction to the setting of the regret in deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Chris Elliott , Einar Urdshals , David Quarel , Daniel Murfet

Density matrix perturbation theory based on recursive Fermi-operator expansions provides a computationally efficient framework for time-independent response calculations in quantum chemistry and materials science. From a perturbation in the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-09-26 Anders M. N. Niklasson , Adela Habib , Joshua Finkelstein , Emanuel H. Rubensson

We define susceptibilities as a measure of the response of an observable quantity of a parameterized statistical model to a perturbation of the data for a general class of observables. We define estimators for these susceptibilities as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Chris Elliott , Daniel Murfet

Traditional works on community detection from observations of information cascade assume that a single adjacency matrix parametrizes all the observed cascades. However, in reality the connection structure usually does not stay the same…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-11 Ming Yu , Varun Gupta , Mladen Kolar

Spectroscopy infers the internal structure of physical systems by measuring their response to perturbations. We apply this principle to neural networks: perturbing the data distribution by upweighting a token $y$ in context $x$, we measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Andrew Gordon , Garrett Baker , George Wang , William Snell , Stan van Wingerden , Daniel Murfet

Mechanistic interpretability aims to understand how neural networks generalize beyond their training data by reverse-engineering their internal structures. We introduce patterning as the dual problem: given a desired form of generalization,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 George Wang , Daniel Murfet

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Dependency networks (Heckerman et al., 2000) are potential probabilistic graphical models for systems comprising a large number of variables. Like Bayesian networks, the structure of a dependency network is represented by a directed graph,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-05 Kazuya Takabatake , Shotaro Akaho

General results from statistical learning theory suggest to understand not only brain computations, but also brain plasticity as probabilistic inference. But a model for that has been missing. We propose that inherently stochastic features…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-02-17 David Kappel , Stefan Habenschuss , Robert Legenstein , Wolfgang Maass

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-12 Giri Gopalan

We introduce the concept of network susceptibilities quantifying the response of the collective dy- namics of a network to small parameter changes. We distinguish two types of susceptibilities: vertex susceptibilities and edge…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2017-02-01 Debsankha Manik , Martin Rohden , Henrik Ronellenfitsch , Xiaozhu Zhang , Sarah Hallerberg , Dirk Witthaut , Marc Timme

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

We propose a fluctuation-dissipation theorem in open quantum systems from an information-theoretic perspective. We define the fidelity susceptibility that measures the sensitivity of the systems under perturbation and relate it to the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-09-30 Jian-Hao Zhang , Cenke Xu , Yichen Xu

The effect of bias on hypothesis formation is characterized for an automated data-driven projection pursuit neural network to extract and select features for binary classification of data streams. This intelligent exploratory process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-05 John Patterson , Chris Avery , Tyler Grear , Donald J. Jacobs

We study the identifiability of parameters and falsifiability of predictions under the process of model expansion in a Bayesian setting. Identifiability is represented by the closeness of the posterior to the prior distribution and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Collin Cademartori

Data dispersed across multiple files are commonly integrated through probabilistic linkage methods, where even minimal error rates in record matching can significantly contaminate subsequent statistical analyses. In regression problems, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Abhisek Chakraborty , Saptati Datta

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Hugo Henri Joseph Senetaire , Damien Garreau , Jes Frellsen , Pierre-Alexandre Mattei

There is increasing interest in learning how human brain networks vary as a function of a continuous trait, but flexible and efficient procedures to accomplish this goal are limited. We develop a Bayesian semiparametric model, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-02 Lu Wang , Daniele Durante , Rex E. Jung , David B. Dunson

Neural networks, being susceptible to adversarial attacks, should face a strict level of scrutiny before being deployed in critical or adversarial applications. This paper uses ideas from Chaos Theory to explain, analyze, and quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-07 Jonathan S. Kent
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