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Classifier calibration does not always go hand in hand with the classifier's ability to separate the classes. There are applications where good classifier calibration, i.e. the ability to produce accurate probability estimates, is more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Tuomo Alasalmi , Jaakko Suutala , Heli Koskimäki , Juha Röning

This paper provides both an introduction to and a detailed overview of the principles and practice of classifier calibration. A well-calibrated classifier correctly quantifies the level of uncertainty or confidence associated with its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-16 Ola Spjuth , Robin Carrión Brännström , Lars Carlsson , Niharika Gauraha

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Specialized classifiers, namely those dedicated to a subset of classes, are often adopted in real-world recognition systems. However, integrating such classifiers is nontrivial. Existing methods, e.g. weighted average, usually implicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-08 Zhizhong Li , Dahua Lin

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Ensembling is a simple and popular technique for boosting evaluation performance by training multiple models (e.g., with different initializations) and aggregating their predictions. This approach is commonly reserved for the largest…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Dan Kondratyuk , Mingxing Tan , Matthew Brown , Boqing Gong

A key challenge for decision makers when incorporating black box machine learned models into practice is being able to understand the predictions provided by these models. One proposed set of methods is training surrogate explainer models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Qiaomei Li , Rachel Cummings , Yonatan Mintz

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Recommender systems are one of the most applied methods in machine learning and find applications in many areas, ranging from economics to the Internet of things. This article provides a general overview of modern approaches to recommender…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Irina Beregovskaya , Mikhail Koroteev

We show that a class of optimized e-value combinations, arising from a standard construction of e-processes, remains valid even when the tuning parameter is optimized based on the data. This result holds for independent e-values, and, more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Jiahao Ming , Yi Shen , Ruodu Wang

A growing number of universities worldwide use various forms of online and blended learning as part of their academic curricula. Furthermore, the recent changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a drastic increase in importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-05 Galina Deeva , Johannes De Smedt , Cecilia Saint-Pierre , Richard Weber , Jochen De Weerdt

We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees against adversarially chosen data. It is computationally lightweight -- comparable to split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Osbert Bastani , Varun Gupta , Christopher Jung , Georgy Noarov , Ramya Ramalingam , Aaron Roth

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

A discriminative ensemble tracker employs multiple classifiers, each of which casts a vote on all of the obtained samples. The votes are then aggregated in an attempt to localize the target object. Such method relies on collective…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-05-01 Kourosh Meshgi , Maryam Sadat Mirzaei , Shigeyuki Oba , Shin Ishii

Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Daohong Tu , Kay Giesecke

In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-02 Q. A. Meertens , C. G. H. Diks , H. J. van den Herik , F W Takes

We propose a method to reduce the complexity of Generalized Linear Models in the presence of categorical predictors. The traditional one-hot encoding, where each category is represented by a dummy variable, can be wasteful, difficult to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-20 Emilio Carrizosa , Marcela Galvis Restrepo , Dolores Romero Morales