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In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Matteo Fontana , Gianluca Zeni , Simone Vantini

Predictor combination aims to improve a (target) predictor of a learning task based on the (reference) predictors of potentially relevant tasks, without having access to the internals of individual predictors. We present a new predictor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Kwang In Kim , Christian Richardt , Hyung Jin Chang

Prediction-powered inference is a recent methodology for the safe use of black-box ML models to impute missing data, strengthening inference of statistical parameters. However, many applications require strong properties besides valid…

We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-21 Yakov Babichenko , Dan Garber

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Antonios Antoniadis , Christian Coester , Marek Eliáš , Adam Polak , Bertrand Simon

In recent times, with the exception of sporadic cases, the trend in Computer Vision is to achieve minor improvements compared to considerable increases in complexity. To reverse this trend, we propose a novel method to boost image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Antonio Bruno , Davide Moroni , Massimo Martinelli

We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption. However, this assumption is often violated in online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-07 Jungbin Jun , Ilsang Ohn

This study considers the method to derive a ranking of alternatives by aggregating the rankings submitted by several individuals who may not evaluate all of them. The collection of subsets of alternatives that individuals (can) evaluate is…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-09-18 Yasunori Okumura

This paper studies statistical aggregation procedures in regression setting. A motivating factor is the existence of many different methods of estimation, leading to possibly competing estimators. We consider here three different types of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Florentina Bunea , Alexandre Tsybakov , Marten Wegkamp

In this paper, we introduce a new learning strategy based on a seminal idea of Mojirsheibani (1999, 2000, 2002a, 2002b), who proposed a smart method for combining several classifiers, relying on a consensus notion. In many aggregation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Aurélie Fischer , Mathilde Mougeot

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-13 Thomas Mortier , Alireza Javanmardi , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Charles Lu , Yaodong Yu , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan , Ramesh Raskar

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Sooyong Jang , Insup Lee

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage. Yet, efficiently leveraging multiple conformity scores to reduce prediction set size remains a major open challenge.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Congbin Xu , Yue Yu , Haojie Ren , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

Consensus clustering fuses diverse basic partitions (i.e., clustering results obtained from conventional clustering methods) into an integrated one, which has attracted increasing attention in both academic and industrial areas due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Hongfu Liu , Zhiqiang Tao , Zhengming Ding

Conformal prediction methods provide statistically rigorous marginal coverage guarantees for machine learning models, but such guarantees fail to account for algorithmic biases, thereby undermining fairness and trust. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yanke Zhou , Yuhao Tan , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Conformalized quantile regression is a procedure that inherits the advantages of conformal prediction and quantile regression. That is, we use quantile regression to estimate the true conditional quantile and then apply a conformal step on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-02 Martim Sousa , Ana Maria Tomé , José Moreira

Judgment aggregation problems form a class of collective decision-making problems represented in an abstract way, subsuming some well known problems such as voting. A collective decision can be reached in many ways, but a direct one-step…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-30 Marija Slavkovik , Wojciech Jamroga

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Glenn Shafer , Vladimir Vovk
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