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We derive a controlled generation objective within the framework of Variational Flow Matching (VFM), which casts flow matching as a variational inference problem. We demonstrate that controlled generation can be implemented two ways: (1) by…

Explainability for machine learning models has gained considerable attention within the research community given the importance of deploying more reliable machine-learning systems. In computer vision applications, generative counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-12 Pau Rodriguez , Massimo Caccia , Alexandre Lacoste , Lee Zamparo , Issam Laradji , Laurent Charlin , David Vazquez

Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Martin Pawelczyk , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Counterfactual explanations aim to enhance model transparency by showing how inputs can be minimally altered to change predictions. For multivariate time series, existing methods often generate counterfactuals that are invalid, implausible,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Sarah Seifi , Anass Ibrahimi , Tobias Sukianto , Cecilia Carbonelli , Lorenzo Servadei , Robert Wille

Despite their high accuracies, modern complex image classifiers cannot be trusted for sensitive tasks due to their unknown decision-making process and potential biases. Counterfactual explanations are very effective in providing…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Kamran Alipour , Aditya Lahiri , Ehsan Adeli , Babak Salimi , Michael Pazzani

Flow matching has become a leading framework for generative modeling, but quantifying the uncertainty of its samples remains an open problem. Existing approaches retrain the model with auxiliary variance heads, maintain costly ensembles, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Jiarui Xing , Song Wang , Jian Wang

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

We posit that autoregressive flow models are well-suited to performing a range of causal inference tasks - ranging from causal discovery to making interventional and counterfactual predictions. In particular, we exploit the fact that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Ricardo Pio Monti , Ilyes Khemakhem , Aapo Hyvarinen

As machine learning (ML) models become more widely deployed in high-stakes applications, counterfactual explanations have emerged as key tools for providing actionable model explanations in practice. Despite the growing popularity of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Martin Pawelczyk , Chirag Agarwal , Shalmali Joshi , Sohini Upadhyay , Himabindu Lakkaraju

Sampling from unnormalized densities is analogous to the generative modeling problem, but the target distribution is defined by a known energy function instead of data samples. Because evaluating the energy function is often costly, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Aaron Havens , Brian Karrer , Neta Shaul

We present a formulation of flow matching as variational inference, which we refer to as variational flow matching (VFM). Based on this formulation we develop CatFlow, a flow matching method for categorical data. CatFlow is easy to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Floor Eijkelboom , Grigory Bartosh , Christian Andersson Naesseth , Max Welling , Jan-Willem van de Meent

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Yikang Chen , Dehui Du , Lili Tian

Denoising diffusion models are a powerful type of generative models used to capture complex distributions of real-world signals. However, their applicability is limited to scenarios where training samples are readily available, which is not…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-20 Ayush Tewari , Tianwei Yin , George Cazenavette , Semon Rezchikov , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Frédo Durand , William T. Freeman , Vincent Sitzmann

We provide a theoretical analysis for end-to-end training Discrete Flow Matching (DFM) generative models. DFM is a promising discrete generative modeling framework that learns the underlying generative dynamics by training a neural network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Maojiang Su , Mingcheng Lu , Jerry Yao-Chieh Hu , Shang Wu , Zhao Song , Alex Reneau , Han Liu

Counterfactual explanations (CE) explain model decisions by identifying input modifications that lead to different predictions. Most existing methods operate at the instance level. Distributional Counterfactual Explanations (DCE) extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Yikai Gu , Lele Cao , Bo Zhao , Lei Lei , Lei You

Using observational data to estimate the effect of a treatment is a powerful tool for decision-making when randomized experiments are infeasible or costly. However, observational data often yields biased estimates of treatment effects,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-01 Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

Counterfactual explanations provide actionable insights by identifying minimal input changes required to achieve a desired model prediction. Beyond their interpretability benefits, counterfactuals can also be leveraged for model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Xuan Zhao , Zhuo Cao , Arya Bangun , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

We investigate Counterfactual Video Foley Generation, which aims to adopt a sound-source identity that contradicts the visual evidence while remaining temporally synchronized to a silent video. Existing Video&Text-to-Audio (VT2A) models…

Multimedia · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Gyubin Lee , Junwon Lee , Juhan Nam

This study presents a novel framework for counterfactual user behavior forecasting that combines structural causal models with transformer-based generative artificial intelligence. To model fictitious situations, the method creates causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Dharmateja Priyadarshi Uddandarao , Ravi Kiran Vadlamani