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Counterfactual explanations indicate the smallest change in input that can translate to a different outcome for a machine learning model. Counterfactuals have generated immense interest in high-stakes applications such as finance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Erfaun Noorani , Pasan Dissanayake , Faisal Hamman , Sanghamitra Dutta

A common objective in the analysis of tabular data is estimating the conditional distribution (in contrast to only producing predictions) of a set of "outcome" variables given a set of "covariates", which is sometimes referred to as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Zhuoqun Wang , Naoki Awaya , Li Ma

Flow-based generative modeling in continuous spaces exploit Tweedie's formula to express the denoiser (learned in training) as a score function (used in sampling). In contrast, this relation has been largely missing in the discrete setting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Yair Shenfeld , Ricardo Baptista , Stefano Peluchetti

Reliable value estimation serves as the cornerstone of reinforcement learning (RL) by evaluating long-term returns and guiding policy improvement, significantly influencing the convergence speed and final performance. Existing works improve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Shan Zhong , Shutong Ding , He Diao , Xiangyu Wang , Kah Chan Teh , Bei Peng

Counterfactual generation lies at the core of various machine learning tasks, including image translation and controllable text generation. This generation process usually requires the identification of the disentangled latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Hanqi Yan , Lingjing Kong , Lin Gui , Yuejie Chi , Eric Xing , Yulan He , Kun Zhang

Counterfactuals are a popular framework for interpreting machine learning predictions. These what if explanations are notoriously challenging to create for computer vision models: standard gradient-based methods are prone to produce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Jeremy Goldwasser , Giles Hooker

Counterfactual explanations (CE) are the de facto method for providing insights into black-box decision-making models by identifying alternative inputs that lead to different outcomes. However, existing CE approaches, including group and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Lei You , Lele Cao , Mattias Nilsson , Bo Zhao , Lei Lei

Counterfactual learning is a natural scenario to improve web-based machine translation services by offline learning from feedback logged during user interactions. In order to avoid the risk of showing inferior translations to users, in such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-15 Carolin Lawrence , Pratik Gajane , Stefan Riezler

Counterfactual instances offer human-interpretable insight into the local behaviour of machine learning models. We propose a general framework to generate sparse, in-distribution counterfactual model explanations which match a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise , Giovanni Vacanti , Oliver Cobb

Learning causal effects of a binary exposure on time-to-event endpoints can be challenging because survival times may be partially observed due to censoring and systematically biased due to truncation. In this work, we present debiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Eric R. Morenz , Charles J. Wolock , Marco Carone

We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-26 Timothy Christensen , Benjamin Connault

Graph generative models are essential across diverse scientific domains by capturing complex distributions over relational data. Among them, graph diffusion models achieve superior performance but face inefficient sampling and limited…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Yiming Qin , Manuel Madeira , Dorina Thanou , Pascal Frossard

This work presents DCFlow, a novel unsupervised cross-modal flow estimation framework that integrates a decoupled optimization strategy and a cross-modal consistency constraint. Unlike previous approaches that implicitly learn flow…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Runmin Zhang , Jialiang Wang , Si-Yuan Cao , Zhu Yu , Junchen Yu , Guangyi Zhang , Hui-Liang Shen

This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-11 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , Qiaojun Feng , Mihaela van der Schaar

Counterfactual explanations suggest what should be different in the input instance to change the outcome of an AI system. When dealing with counterfactual explanations in the field of Predictive Process Monitoring, however, control flow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Ivan Donadello , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

We consider counterfactual explanations, the problem of minimally adjusting features in a source input instance so that it is classified as a target class under a given classifier. This has become a topic of recent interest as a way to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Miguel Á. Carreira-Perpiñán , Suryabhan Singh Hada

Generating counterfactual explanations is one of the most effective approaches for uncovering the inner workings of black-box neural network models and building user trust. While remarkable strides have been made in generative modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Nishtha Madaan , Srikanta Bedathur

Parametric causal modelling techniques rarely provide functionality for counterfactual estimation, often at the expense of modelling complexity. Since causal estimations depend on the family of functions used to model the data, simplistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-16 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee
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