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We consider the problem of online learning in the presence of distribution shifts that occur at an unknown rate and of unknown intensity. We derive a new Bayesian online inference approach to simultaneously infer these distribution shifts…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-28 Aodong Li , Alex Boyd , Padhraic Smyth , Stephan Mandt

Network inference has been extensively studied in several fields, such as systems biology and social sciences. Learning network topology and internal dynamics is essential to understand mechanisms of complex systems. In particular, sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yasen Wang , Junyang Jin , Jorge Goncalves

Active multi-target tracking requires a mobile robot to balance exploration for undetected targets with exploitation of uncertain tracked ones. Diffusion policies have emerged as a powerful approach for capturing diverse behavioral…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Haotian Xiang , Qin Lu , Yaakov Bar-Shalom

The exploding research interest for neural networks in modeling nonlinear dynamical systems is largely explained by the networks' capacity to model complex input-output relations directly from data. However, they typically need vast…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-02-27 Erlend Torje Berg Lundby , Adil Rasheed , Ivar Johan Halvorsen , Dirk Reinhardt , Sebastien Gros , Jan Tommy Gravdahl

Differential Networks (DNs), tools that encapsulate interactions within intricate systems, are brought under the Bayesian lens in this research. A novel na{\i}ve Bayesian adaptive graphical elastic net (BAE) prior is introduced to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 J. Smith , A. Bekker , M. Arashi

To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-07-03 Saswata Das , Mohammad Hossein Samaei , Caterina Scoglio

Complex dynamical systems are prevalent in various domains, but their analysis and prediction are hindered by their high dimensionality and nonlinearity. Dimensionality reduction techniques can simplify the system dynamics by reducing the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-28 Chengyi Tu , Ying Fan , Tianyu Shi

Modern treatment targeting methods often rely on estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) using machine learning tools. While effective in identifying who benefits from treatment on the individual level, these approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Yuchen Hu , Shuangning Li , Stefan Wager

Differential networks (DN) are important tools for modeling the changes in conditional dependencies between multiple samples. A Bayesian approach for estimating DNs, from the classical viewpoint, is introduced with a computationally…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-06 Jarod Smith , Mohammad Arashi , Andriette Bekker

Systems that comprise many interacting dynamical networks, such as the human body with its biological networks or the global economic network consisting of regional clusters, often exhibit complicated collective dynamics. To understand the…

Network dynamics are typically presented as a time series of network properties captured at each period. The current approach examines the dynamical properties of transmission via novel measures on an integrated, temporally extended network…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-08 Aaron Bramson , Benjamin Vandermarliere

In this thesis, we introduce Bayesian filtering as a principled framework for tackling diverse sequential machine learning problems, including online (continual) learning, prequential (one-step-ahead) forecasting, and contextual bandits. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-13 Gerardo Duran-Martin

In this paper, we study the dynamics of epidemic processes taking place in adaptive networks of arbitrary topology. We focus our study on the adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) model, where healthy individuals are allowed to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-06-29 Masaki Ogura , Victor M. Preciado

We study the tipping point collective dynamics of an adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological network in a data-driven, machine learning-assisted manner. We identify a parameter-dependent effective stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Nikolaos Evangelou , Tianqi Cui , Juan M. Bello-Rivas , Alexei Makeev , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Graph filters leverage topological information to process networked data with existing methods mainly studying fixed graphs, ignoring that graphs often expand as nodes continually attach with an unknown pattern. The latter requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Zhan Gao , Bishwadeep Das , Elvin Isufi

In an increasingly connected world, the resilience of networked dynamical systems is important in the fields of ecology, economics, critical infrastructures, and organizational behaviour. Whilst we understand small-scale resilience well,…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2018-08-21 Giannis Moutsinas , Weisi Guo

There is an obvious need for improving the performance and accuracy of a Bayesian network as new data is observed. Because of errors in model construction and changes in the dynamics of the domains, we cannot afford to ignore the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Nir Friedman , Moises Goldszmidt

The characterization of the "most connected" nodes in static or slowly evolving complex networks has helped in understanding and predicting the behavior of social, biological, and technological networked systems, including their robustness…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-10-21 Scott A. Hill , Dan Braha

Precision medicine aims to tailor therapeutic decisions to individual patient characteristics. This objective is commonly formalized through dynamic treatment regimes, which use statistical and machine learning methods to derive sequential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-23 Sophia Yazzourh , Erica E. M. Moodie

Count-weighted temporal networks often exhibit unequal dispersion in the edge weights, which cannot be fully explained by modelling observational heterogeneity through latent factors in the conditional mean. Therefore, we propose new…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Giulia Carallo , Roberto Casarin , Antonio Peruzzi