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We develop a new approach for identifying and estimating average causal effects in panel data under a linear factor model with unmeasured confounders. Compared to other methods tackling factor models such as synthetic controls and matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

Temporal collaborative filtering (TCF) methods aim at modelling non-static aspects behind recommender systems, such as the dynamics in users' preferences and social trends around items. State-of-the-art TCF methods employ recurrent neural…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-14 Esther Rodrigo Bonet , Duc Minh Nguyen , Nikos Deligiannis

Instrumental Variable (IV) provides a source of treatment randomization that is conditionally independent of the outcomes, responding to the challenges of counterfactual and confounding biases. In finance, IV construction typically relies…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-27 Ying Chen , Ziwei Xu , Kotaro Inoue , Ryutaro Ichise

Training data has been proven to be one of the most critical components in training generative AI. However, obtaining high-quality data remains challenging, with data privacy issues presenting a significant hurdle. To address the need for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Jia-Chen Zhang , Zheng Zhou , Yu-Jie Xiong , Chun-Ming Xia , Fei Dai

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounding and various types of right-censoring. Examples of these censoring mechanisms are administrative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ilias Willems , Sara Rutten , Gilles Crommen , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Counterfactual explanations methods provide an important tool in the field of {interpretable machine learning}. Recent advances in this direction have focused on diffusion models to explain a deep classifier. However, these techniques have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Wei Zhang , Brian Barr , John Paisley

Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured exposures is a fundamental challenge in modern applications ranging from neuroscience and finance to environmental science. While the literature has addressed high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Samhita Pal , Dhrubajyoti Ghosh

To reach human level intelligence, learning algorithms need to incorporate causal reasoning. But identifying causality, and particularly counterfactual reasoning, remains elusive. In this paper, we make progress on counterfactual inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Marc Braun , Jose M. Peña , Adel Daoud

Instrumental variable methods are fundamental to causal inference when treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. In this article, we develop a general nonparametric causal framework for identification and learning with…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

Feature selection is fundamental to robust data-centric AI, but most existing methods optimize predictive performance under a single data distribution. This often selects spurious features that fail under distribution shifts. Motivated by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Arun Vignesh Malarkkan , Xinyuan Wang , Kunpeng Liu , Denghui Zhang , Yanjie Fu

Data scarcity is a tremendous challenge in causal effect estimation. In this paper, we propose to exploit additional data sources to facilitate estimating causal effects in the target population. Specifically, we leverage additional source…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Trong Nghia Hoang , Tze-Yun Leong

Instrumental variable methods are widely used for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Existing instrumental variable methods for nonlinear outcome models require stringent identifiability conditions. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-01 Sai Li , Zijian Guo

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

Imputing missing values in spatial-temporal traffic data is essential for intelligent transportation systems. Among advanced imputation methods, score-based diffusion models have demonstrated competitive performance. These models generate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Xiaowei Mao , Huihu Ding , Yan Lin , Tingrui Wu , Shengnan Guo , Dazhuo Qiu , Feiling Fang , Jilin Hu , Huaiyu Wan

Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Gregor Steiner , Jeremie Houssineau , Mark F. J. Steel

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

Data imputation and data generation have important applications for many domains, like healthcare and finance, where incomplete or missing data can hinder accurate analysis and decision-making. Diffusion models have emerged as powerful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Mario Villaizán-Vallelado , Matteo Salvatori , Carlos Segura , Ioannis Arapakis

Determining subgroups that respond especially well (or poorly) to specific interventions (medical or policy) requires new supervised learning methods tailored specifically for causal inference. Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) is a recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-16 Nikolay Krantsevich , Jingyu He , P. Richard Hahn

Instrumental variable (IV) methods mitigate bias from unobserved confounding in observational causal inference but rely on the availability of a valid instrument, which can often be difficult or infeasible to identify in practice. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Frances Dean , Jenna Fields , Radhika Bhalerao , Marie Charpignon , Ahmed Alaa