English
Related papers

Related papers: Detecting Changes in Causal Dependence with Kernel…

200 papers

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal discovery can help inferring properties of the `unobserved joint distributions'…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-12 Dominik Janzing , Philipp M. Faller , Leena Chennuru Vankadara

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Conditional copula models allow dependence structures to vary with observed covariates while preserving a separation between marginal behavior and association. We study the uniform asymptotic behavior of kernel-weighted local likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Mathias Nthiani Muia

Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-13 Jovana Mitrovic , Dino Sejdinovic , Yee Whye Teh

In this paper, we introduce quantile coherency to measure general dependence structures emerging in the joint distribution in the frequency domain and argue that this type of dependence is natural for economic time series but remains…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-31 Jozef Baruník , Tobias Kley

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Over the last couple of decades, several copula based methods have been proposed in the literature to test for the independence among several random variables. But these existing tests are not invariant under monotone transformations of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-15 Angshuman Roy , Anil Ghosh , Alok Goswami , C. A. Murthy

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

In this paper we propose and study a class of simple, nonparametric, yet interpretable measures of conditional dependence between two random variables $Y$ and $Z$ given a third variable $X$, all taking values in general topological spaces.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-20 Zhen Huang , Nabarun Deb , Bodhisattva Sen

This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le

A standard assumption for causal inference from observational data is that one has measured a sufficiently rich set of covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values. Skepticism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-24 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

Classical and more recent tests for detecting distributional changes in multivariate time series often lack power against alternatives that involve changes in the cross-sectional dependence structure. To be able to detect such changes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-16 Axel Bücher , Ivan Kojadinovic , Tom Rohmer , Johan Segers

We study offline change-point estimation for time series data exhibiting nonlinear serial dependence. To address this problem, we propose a copula-based Markov chain model with Weibull marginal distributions, which is suitable for modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Li-Hsien Sun , Zong-Yuan Huang , Yi-Ling Huang , Chi-Yang Chiu , Ning Ning

Parametric factor copula models typically work well in modeling multivariate dependencies due to their flexibility and ability to capture complex dependency structures. However, accurately estimating the linking copulas within these models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Bahareh Ghanbari , Pavel Krupskiy , Laleh Tafakori , Yan Wang

We propose a new multivariate dependency measure. It is obtained by considering a Gaussian kernel based distance between the copula transform of the given d-dimensional distribution and the uniform copula and then appropriately normalizing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Angshuman Roy , Alok Goswami , C. A. Murthy

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

We are interested in learning causal relationships between pairs of random variables, purely from observational data. To effectively address this task, the state-of-the-art relies on strong assumptions regarding the mechanisms mapping…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-09-16 David Lopez-Paz , Krikamol Muandet , Benjamin Recht

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou