Related papers: Online Localized Conformal Prediction
Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…
Conformal prediction is widely adopted in uncertainty quantification, due to its post-hoc, distribution-free, and model-agnostic properties. In the realm of modern deep learning, researchers have proposed Feature Conformal Prediction (FCP),…
Federated learning (FL) faces challenges in uncertainty quantification (UQ). Without reliable UQ, FL systems risk deploying overconfident models at under-resourced agents, leading to silent local failures despite seemingly satisfactory…
When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…
In recent years, functional linear models have attracted growing attention in statistics and machine learning, with the aim of recovering the slope function or its functional predictor. This paper considers online regularized learning…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…
Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…
Quantifying the data uncertainty in learning tasks is often done by learning a prediction interval or prediction set of the label given the input. Two commonly desired properties for learned prediction sets are \emph{valid coverage} and…
Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…
Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…
We propose \textbf{Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP)}, a distribution-free framework for constructing well-calibrated prediction intervals in nonstationary time series. TCP couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling…
Uncertainty quantification in time series prediction is challenging due to the temporal dependence and distribution shift on sequential data. Conformal inference provides a pivotal and flexible instrument for assessing the uncertainty of…
Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…
Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations…
Temporal Heterogeneous Networks play a crucial role in capturing the dynamics and heterogeneity inherent in various real-world complex systems, rendering them a noteworthy research avenue for link prediction. However, existing methods fail…
Similarity/Distance measures play a key role in many machine learning, pattern recognition, and data mining algorithms, which leads to the emergence of metric learning field. Many metric learning algorithms learn a global distance function…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…
Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…
Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…
Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be an effective post-hoc method for improving the trustworthiness of neural networks by providing prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees. However, under adversarial attacks, classical conformal…