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Missing data is a systemic problem in practical scenarios that causes noise and bias when estimating treatment effects. This makes treatment effect estimation from data with missingness a particularly tricky endeavour. A key reason for this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-27 Jeroen Berrevoets , Fergus Imrie , Trent Kyono , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Michael Oberst , Ming-Chieh Shih , David Sontag

We present a Transfer Causal Learning (TCL) framework when target and source domains share the same covariate/feature spaces, aiming to improve causal effect estimation accuracy in limited data. Limited data is very common in medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Song Wei , Hanyu Zhang , Ronald Moore , Rishikesan Kamaleswaran , Yao Xie

This paper provides a new approach for identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated under a linear factor model that allows for multiple time-varying unobservables. Unlike the majority of the literature on…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Koki Fusejima , Takuya Ishihara

We consider estimation of the target population average treatment effect (TATE) when outcome information is unavailable. Instead, we observe the outcome in multiple source populations and wish to combine the treatment effects therein to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Zehao Su , Helene Charlotte Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Medication adherence is essential to ensure treatment effectiveness, but too often in routine care non-adherence compromises the desired outcome. We explore longitudinal causal modelling using observational data to estimate the time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Xiaoran Liang , Deniz Türkmen , Jane A H Masoli , Luke C Pilling , Jack Bowden

Proximal causal inference provides a framework for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging outcome and treatment proxies. Identification in this framework relies on the existence…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Chunrong Ai , Jiawei Shan

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an essential component of precision medicine. Model and algorithm-based methods have been developed within the causal inference framework to achieve valid estimation and inference. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-10 Ruohong Li , Honglang Wang , Wanzhu Tu

We propose a doubly robust estimator for the average treatment effect in high dimensional low sample size observational studies, where contamination and model misspecification pose serious inferential challenges. The estimator combines…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Byeonghee Lee , Sangwook Kang , Ju-Hyun Park , Saebom Jeon , Joonsung Kang

An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Jeroen Hoogland , Thomas P. A. Debray , John Petkau

Understanding the effects of quarantine policies in populations with underlying social networks is crucial for public health, yet most causal inference methods fail here due to their assumption of independent individuals. We introduce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Suhan Guo , Furao Shen , Ni Li

Background: Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is used for confounding adjustment in observational studies. Newer weighting methods include energy balancing (EB), kernel optimal matching (KOM), and tailored-loss covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Etienne Peyrot , Raphaël Porcher , Francois Petit

Longitudinal passive sensing enables continuous health prediction, yet models often fail under cross-dataset distribution shifts. Traditional ML overfits cohort-specific artifacts, while Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to reason…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Yuang Fan , Lilin Xu , Millie Wu , Jingping Nie , Qingyu Chen , Yuzhe Yang , Zhuo Zhang , Xin Liu , Subigya Nepal , Xiaofan Jiang , Xuhai "Orson" Xu

Consider the case that one observes a single time-series, where at each time t one observes a data record O(t) involving treatment nodes A(t), possible covariates L(t) and an outcome node Y(t). The data record at time t carries information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-04 Mark J. van der Laan , Ivana Malenica

We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the instrumental variable (IV) suitably…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-16 Tymon Słoczyński , S. Derya Uysal , Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-19 Milan Kuzmanovic , Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are often considered the gold standard for estimating causal effect, but they may lack external validity when the population eligible to the RCT is substantially different from the target population.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-11 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet , Gaël Varoquaux

In sequential causal inference, one estimates the causal net effect of treatment in treatment sequence on an outcome after last treatment in the presence of time-dependent covariates between treatments, improves the estimation by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-18 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang