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Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal prediction for graph neural networks (GNNs) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty, enhancing GNN reliability in high-stakes applications. However, existing methods predominantly focus on static graphs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-04 Tuo Wang , Jian Kang , Yujun Yan , Adithya Kulkarni , Dawei Zhou

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Roberto I. Oliveira , Paulo Orenstein , Thiago Ramos , João Vitor Romano

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Scalar coupling constant (SCC) plays a key role in the analysis of three-dimensional structure of organic matter, however, the traditional SCC prediction using quantum mechanical calculations is very time-consuming. To calculate SCC…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-11 Caiqing Jian , Xinyu Cheng , Jian Zhang , Lihui Wang

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Peyman Baghershahi , Fangxin Wang , Debmalya Mandal , Sourav Medya

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in diverse tasks, yet their applications in high-stakes domains are often hampered by unreliable predictions. Although numerous uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Tianyi Zhao , Jian Kang , Lu Cheng

Spectral graph convolutional networks are generalizations of standard convolutional networks for graph-structured data using the Laplacian operator. A common misconception is the instability of spectral filters, i.e. the impossibility to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-21 Axel Nilsson , Xavier Bresson

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Yun Xie , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful machine learning prediction models on graph-structured data. However, GNNs lack rigorous uncertainty estimates, limiting their reliable deployment in settings where the cost of errors is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Kexin Huang , Ying Jin , Emmanuel Candès , Jure Leskovec

Conformal inference is a method that provides prediction sets for machine learning models, operating independently of the underlying distributional assumptions and relying solely on the exchangeability of training and test data. Despite its…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-01 Daniela Corbetta , Livio Finos , Ludwig Geistlinger , Davide Risso

Traffic forecasting is crucial for public safety and resource optimization, yet is very challenging due to three aspects: i) current existing works mostly exploit intricate temporal patterns (e.g., the short-term thunderstorm and long-term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Yuchen Fang , Yanjun Qin , Haiyong Luo , Fang Zhao , Bingbing Xu , Chenxing Wang , Liang Zeng

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for predicting outcomes in graph-structured data. However, a notable limitation of GNNs is their inability to provide robust uncertainty estimates, which undermines their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 S. Akansha

Predicting the future trajectory of surrounding vehicles in a randomly varying traffic level is one of the most challenging problems in developing an autonomous vehicle. Since there is no pre-defined number of interacting vehicles…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Hyeongseok Jeon , Junwon Choi , Dongsuk Kum

Identifying structures in common forms the basis for networked systems design and optimization. However, real structures represented by graphs are often of varying sizes, leading to the low accuracy of traditional graph classification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Xiaoyu Zhang , Wenchuan Yang , Jiawei Feng , Bitao Dai , Tianci Bu , Xin Lu

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage, assuming exchangeable data. However, real-world scenarios often involve distribution shifts that violate exchangeability, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Graph transformers extend global self-attention to graph-structured data, achieving notable success in graph learning. Recently, random walk structural encoding (RWSE) has been found to further enhance their predictive power by encoding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Louis Airale , Antonio Longa , Mattia Rigon , Andrea Passerini , Roberto Passerone
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