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Robins 1997 introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. In his work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Haben Michael , Yifan Cui , Scott Lorch , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In this work we propose a different surgical modified model for the construction of counterfactual variables under non parametric structural equation models. This approach allows the simultaneous representation of counterfactual responses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-08 Julieta Molina , Lucio Pantazis , Mariela Sued

Generating safety-critical driving scenarios requires understanding why dangerous interactions arise, rather than merely forcing collisions. However, existing methods rely on heuristic adversarial agent selection and unstructured…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Bowen Jing , Ruiyang Hao , Weitao Zhou , Haibao Yu

Topological invariants, rigorously defined only in the thermodynamic limit, have been generalized to topological indicators applicable to finite-size disordered systems. However, in many experimentally relevant situations, such as…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2025-08-19 Robert Eissele , Binayyak B. Roy , Sumanta Tewari , Tudor D. Stanescu

Counterfactuals, serving as one of the emerging type of model interpretations, have recently received attention from both researchers and practitioners. Counterfactual explanations formalize the exploration of ``what-if'' scenarios, and are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Fan Yang , Sahan Suresh Alva , Jiahao Chen , Xia Hu

We consider the task of causal imputation, where we aim to predict the outcomes of some set of actions across a wide range of possible contexts. As a running example, we consider predicting how different drugs affect cells from different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-19 Alvaro Ribot , Chandler Squires , Caroline Uhler

Generative modeling typically seeks the path of least action via deterministic flows (ODE). While effective for in-distribution tasks, we argue that these deterministic paths become brittle under causal interventions, which often require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Rui Wu , Li YongJun

To perform counterfactual reasoning in Structural Causal Models (SCMs), one needs to know the causal mechanisms, which provide factorizations of conditional distributions into noise sources and deterministic functions mapping realizations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Guy Lorberbom , Daniel D. Johnson , Chris J. Maddison , Daniel Tarlow , Tamir Hazan

Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-10 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Suchi Saria

We consider the identification of non-causal systems with random switching modes (NCSRSM), a class of models essential for describing typical power load management and department store inventory dynamics. The simultaneous identification of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-19 Yanxin Zhang , Chengpu Yu , Filippo Fabiani

Urban traffic anomalies, such as collisions and disruptions, threaten the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of transportation systems. In this paper, we present a simulation-based framework for modeling, detecting, and predicting such…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-17 Tony Kinchen , Ting Bai , Nishanth Venkatesh S. , Andreas A. Malikopoulos

Recent progress in Neural Causal Models (NCMs) showcased how identification and partial identification of causal effects can be automatically carried out via training of neural generative models that respect the constraints encoded in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Counterfactual examples have proven to be valuable in the field of natural language processing (NLP) for both evaluating and improving the robustness of language models to spurious correlations in datasets. Despite their demonstrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Tiep Le , Vasudev Lal , Phillip Howard

It has long been recognized that certain quantum correlations are incompatible with particular assumption about classical causal structure. Given a causal structure of unknown classicality, the presence of such correlations certifies the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-08-19 Thomas C. Fraser , Elie Wolfe

Most neural models of causality assume static causal graphs, failing to capture the dynamic and sparse nature of physical interactions where causal relationships emerge and dissolve over time. We introduce the Causal Process Framework and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Turan Orujlu , Christian Gumbsch , Martin V. Butz , Charley M Wu

Prior image-text matching methods have shown remarkable performance on many benchmark datasets, but most of them overlook the bias in the dataset, which exists in intra-modal and inter-modal, and tend to learn the spurious correlations that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Wenhui Li , Xinqi Su , Dan Song , Lanjun Wang , Kun Zhang , An-An Liu

Causal additive models provide a tractable yet expressive framework for causal discovery in the presence of hidden variables. When unobserved backdoor or causal paths exist between two variables, their causal relationship is often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Thong Pham , Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-07 Irene Botosaru , Chris Muris

Directed networks are pervasive both in nature and engineered systems, often underlying the complex behavior observed in biological systems, microblogs and social interactions over the web, as well as global financial markets. Since their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-07 Yanning Shen , Brian Baingana , Georgios B. Giannakis

Causal and counterfactual reasoning are emerging directions in data science that allow us to reason about hypothetical scenarios. This is particularly useful in fields like environmental and ecological sciences, where interventional data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Rafael Cabañas , Ana D. Maldonado , María Morales , Pedro A. Aguilera , Antonio Salmerón