English
Related papers

Related papers: The Manokhin Probability Matrix: A Diagnostic Fram…

200 papers

Selective Classification, wherein models can reject low-confidence predictions, promises reliable translation of machine-learning based classification systems to real-world scenarios such as clinical diagnostics. While current evaluation of…

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are of interest from an explainable AI viewpoint, offering transparent probabilistic models for decision support. Baymex is a recently introduced multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for learning discretized BNs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Damy M. F. Ha , Tanja Alderliesten , Peter A. N. Bosman

To maximize the accuracy and increase the overall acceptance of text classifiers, we propose a framework for the efficient, in-operation moderation of classifiers' output. Our framework focuses on use cases in which F1-scores of modern…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-05 Jakob Smedegaard Andersen , Walid Maalej

Machine learning-based decision support systems are increasingly deployed in clinical settings, where probabilistic scoring functions are used to inform and prioritize patient management decisions. However, widely used scoring rules, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Gerardo A. Flores , Alyssa H. Smith , Julia A. Fukuyama , Ashia C. Wilson

Machine unlearning aims to remove the influence of specific training data from a model while preserving reliable behavior on the remaining data, making reliable prediction and uncertainty estimation essential for evaluation. Calibration is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Divyaksh Shukla , Ashutosh Modi

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Owen Thomas , Jukka Corander

Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Romeo Valentin

Classification is a fundamental problem in machine learning and data mining. During the past decades, numerous classification methods have been presented based on different principles. However, most existing classifiers cast the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Zengyou He , Chaohua Sheng , Yan Liu , Quan Zou

Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 Ali Malik , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Jiaming Song , Danny Nemer , Harlan Seymour , Stefano Ermon

Given a binary prediction problem, which performance metric should the classifier optimize? We address this question by formalizing the problem of Metric Elicitation. The goal of metric elicitation is to discover the performance metric of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-21 Gaurush Hiranandani , Shant Boodaghians , Ruta Mehta , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Eugène Berta , David Holzmüller , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Learning an appropriate (dis)similarity function from the available data is a central problem in machine learning, since the success of many machine learning algorithms critically depends on the choice of a similarity function to compare…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-08-30 Zheng-Chu Guo , Yiming Ying

In the recent literature on machine learning and decision making, calibration has emerged as a desirable and widely-studied statistical property of the outputs of binary prediction models. However, the algorithmic aspects of measuring model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Lunjia Hu , Arun Jambulapati , Kevin Tian , Chutong Yang

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-05 Jianfa Lai , Zhifan Li , Dongming Huang , Qian Lin

There are strong incentives to build models that demonstrate outstanding predictive performance on various datasets and benchmarks. We believe these incentives risk a narrow focus on models and on the performance metrics used to evaluate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 David Lovell , Dimity Miller , Jaiden Capra , Andrew Bradley

Probabilistic classifiers output confidence scores along with their predictions, and these confidence scores should be calibrated, i.e., they should reflect the reliability of the prediction. Confidence scores that minimize standard metrics…

The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-18 Xuchao Zhang , Fanglan Chen , Chang-Tien Lu , Naren Ramakrishnan

Multilabel Classification (MLC) deals with the simultaneous classification of multiple binary labels. The task is challenging because, not only may there be arbitrarily different and complex relationships between predictor variables and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Jiahao Tian , Hugh Chipman , Thomas Loughin

Most supervised learning models are trained for full automation. However, their predictions are sometimes worse than those by human experts on some specific instances. Motivated by this empirical observation, our goal is to design…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Abir De , Nastaran Okati , Ali Zarezade , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Multivariate decision trees are powerful machine learning tools for classification and regression that attract many researchers and industry professionals. An optimal binary tree has two types of vertices, (i) branching vertices which have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Brandon Alston , Illya V. Hicks