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Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable,…

The rare-event sampling problem has long been the central limiting factor in molecular dynamics (MD), especially in biomolecular simulation. Recently, diffusion models such as BioEmu have emerged as powerful equilibrium samplers that…

Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-19 David B. Huberman , Brian J. Reich , Howard D. Bondell

How much explicit guidance is necessary for conditional diffusion? We consider the problem of conditional sampling using an unconditional diffusion model and limited explicit guidance (e.g., a noised classifier, or a conditional diffusion…

Obtaining accurate estimates of uncertainty in climate scenarios often requires generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate simulations, a computationally expensive and memory intensive process. To address this challenge, we train…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Johannes Meuer , Maximilian Witte , Tobias Sebastian Finn , Claudia Timmreck , Thomas Ludwig , Christopher Kadow

Forecast systems in science and technology are increasingly moving beyond point prediction toward methods that produce full predictive distributions of future outcomes y, conditional on high-dimensional and complex sequences of inputs x.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-13 Elizabeth Cucuzzella , Rafael Izbicki , Ann B. Lee

Forecasting future weather and climate is inherently difficult. Machine learning offers new approaches to increase the accuracy and computational efficiency of forecasts, but current methods are unable to accurately model uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-02 Yusuke Hatanaka , Yannik Glaser , Geoff Galgon , Giuseppe Torri , Peter Sadowski

Deep learning models have achieved remarkable progress in precipitation prediction. However, they still face significant challenges in accurately capturing spatial details of radar images, particularly in regions of high precipitation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Li Chaorong , Ling Xudong , Yang Qiang , Qin Fengqing , Huang Yuanyuan

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Myungsoo Yoo , Likun Zhang , Christopher K. Wikle , Thomas Opitz

Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed. However, the ability of these ML models to generalize beyond the training…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-09 Bosong Zhang , Timothy M. Merlis

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Adam Rupe , Karthik Kashinath , Nalini Kumar , Victor Lee , Prabhat , James P. Crutchfield

Earth system models (ESMs), which simulate the physics and chemistry of the global atmosphere, land, and ocean, are often used to generate future projections of climate change scenarios. These models are far too computationally intensive to…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Alexandra Puchko , Robert Link , Brian Hutchinson , Ben Kravitz , Abigail Snyder

Climate change exacerbates extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and flooding. As these events cause severe socioeconomic damage, accurate high-resolution simulation of precipitation is imperative. However, existing Earth System Models…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-02-03 Michael Aich , Philipp Hess , Baoxiang Pan , Sebastian Bathiany , Yu Huang , Niklas Boers

Diffusion models offer stable training and state-of-the-art performance for deep generative modeling tasks. Here, we consider their use in the context of multivariate subsurface modeling and probabilistic inversion. We first demonstrate…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Roberto Miele , Niklas Linde

Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at…

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-23 Shikha Verma , Kuldeep Srivastava , Akhilesh Tiwari , Shekhar Verma

Diffusion models have made remarkable progress in solving various inverse problems, attributing to the generative modeling capability of the data manifold. Posterior sampling from the conditional score function enable the precious data…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Jinghao Zhang , Zizheng Yang , Qi Zhu , Feng Zhao

Acting in cluttered environments requires predicting and avoiding collisions while still achieving precise control. Conventional optimization-based controllers can enforce physical constraints, but they struggle to produce feasible…

Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Martin Andrae , Tomas Landelius , Joel Oskarsson , Fredrik Lindsten

The present research proposes a new memory-efficient method using diffusion models to inject turbulent inflow conditions into Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) for various flow problems. A guided diffusion…