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Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

In countries where population census data are limited, generating accurate subnational estimates of health and demographic indicators is challenging. Existing model-based geostatistical methods leverage covariate information and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield

When estimating causal effects from observational studies, researchers often need to adjust for many covariates to deconfound the non-causal relationship between exposure and outcome, among which many covariates are discrete. The behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-07 Zhenghao Zeng , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Yanjun Han , Edward H. Kennedy

Suppose one is interested in estimating causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding with the aid of a valid instrumental variable. This paper investigates the problem of making inferences about the average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 BaoLuo Sun , Wang Miao

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

In many empirical settings, directly observing a treatment variable may be infeasible although an error-prone surrogate measurement of the latter will often be available. Causal inference based solely on the surrogate measurement is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-26 Ying Zhou , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

Having a large number of covariates can have a negative impact on the quality of causal effect estimation since confounding adjustment becomes unreliable when the number of covariates is large relative to the samples available. Propensity…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-15 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

When mapping subnational health and demographic indicators, direct weighted estimators of small area means based on household survey data can be unreliable when data are limited. If survey microdata are available, unit level models can…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison

Area-level models for small area estimation typically rely on areal random effects to shrink design-based direct estimates towards a model-based predictor. Incorporating the spatial dependence of the random effects into these models can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-22 Sho Kawano , Paul A. Parker , Zehang Richard Li

This paper investigates the finite sample performance of a range of parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric instrumental variable estimators when controlling for a fixed set of covariates to evaluate the local average treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-15 Hugo Bodory , Martin Huber , Michael Lechner

Causal inference from observational datasets often relies on measuring and adjusting for covariates. In practice, measurements of the covariates can often be noisy and/or biased, or only measurements of their proxies may be available.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan