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Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Temporal point process serves as an essential tool for modeling time-to-event data in continuous time space. Despite having massive amounts of event sequence data from various domains like social media, healthcare etc., real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Manisha Dubey , P. K. Srijith , Maunendra Sankar Desarkar

We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Zihan Xu

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Human behavior drives a range of complex social, urban, and economic systems, yet understanding its structure and dynamics at the individual level remains an open question. From credit card transactions to communications data, human…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-05-15 Sharon Xu , Steven Morse , Marta C. González

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Hongyuan Zha

Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Shixiang Zhu , Haoyun Wang , Zheng Dong , Xiuyuan Cheng , Yao Xie

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-14 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Lexing Xie

Online social networking services allow their users to post content in the form of text, images or videos. The main mechanism driving content diffusion is the possibility for users to re-share the content posted by their social connections,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-04-01 Ryota Kobayashi , Renaud Lambiotte

Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Simiao Zuo , Haoming Jiang , Zichong Li , Tuo Zhao , Hongyuan Zha

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-08 E. Bacry , J. F Muzy

Learning causal structure among event types from discrete-time event sequences is a particularly important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the multivariate Hawkes processes based methods, mostly boil down to learning the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-11 Jie Qiao , Ruichu Cai , Siyu Wu , Yu Xiang , Keli Zhang , Zhifeng Hao

Cyber-security analysts face an increasingly large number of alerts received on any given day. This is mainly due to the low precision of many existing methods to detect threats, producing a substantial number of false positives. Usually,…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Iwona Hawryluk , Henrique Hoeltgebaum , Cole Sodja , Tyler Lalicker , Joshua Neil

Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-23 Feng Zhou , Yixuan Zhang , Jun Zhu

With the growing digital transformation of the worldwide economy, cyber risk has become a major issue. As 1 % of the world's GDP (around $1,000 billion) is allegedly lost to cybercrime every year, IT systems continue to get increasingly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-28 Alexandre Boumezoued , Yousra Cherkaoui , Caroline Hillairet

Hawkes stochastic point process models have emerged as valuable statistical tools for analyzing viral contagion. The spatiotemporal Hawkes process characterizes the speeds at which viruses spread within human populations. Unfortunately,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-17 Seyoon Ko , Marc A. Suchard , Andrew J. Holbrook

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

Events in an online social network can be categorized roughly into endogenous events, where users just respond to the actions of their neighbors within the network, or exogenous events, where users take actions due to drives external to the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-08-20 Mehrdad Farajtabar , Nan Du , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez , Isabel Valera , Hongyuan Zha , Le Song

We present the first exact analysis of some of the temporal properties of multivariate self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson processes, which constitute powerful representations of a large variety of systems with bursty events, for which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-08-26 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

This paper focuses on a class of linear Hawkes processes with general immigrants. These are counting processes with shot noise intensity, including self-excited and externally excited patterns. For such processes, we introduce the concept…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-27 Alexandre Boumezoued