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Estimation of the mixing distribution under a general mixture model is a very difficult problem, especially when the mixing distribution is assumed to have a density. Predictive recursion (PR) is a fast, recursive algorithm for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-12 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Ryan Martin , Surya T. Tokdar

Predictive recursion (PR) is a fast stochastic algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions in mixture models. It is known that the PR estimates of both the mixing and mixture densities are consistent under fairly mild…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-28 Ryan Martin

Predictive recursion (PR) is a fast, recursive algorithm that gives a smooth estimate of the mixing distribution under the general mixture model. However, the PR algorithm requires evaluation of a normalizing constant at each iteration.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-09 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Local Polynomial Regression (LPR) is a widely used nonparametric method for modeling complex relationships due to its flexibility and simplicity. It estimates a regression function by fitting low-degree polynomials to localized subsets of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Yaniv Shulman

Mixture models are commonly used when data show signs of heterogeneity and, often, it is important to estimate the distribution of the latent variable responsible for that heterogeneity. This is a common problem for data taking values in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-22 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing density based on observations from the corresponding mixture is a challenging statistical problem. This paper surveys the literature on a fast, recursive estimator based on the predictive recursion…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-15 Ryan Martin

Parameter Recombination (PR) methods aim to efficiently compose the weights of a neural network for applications like Parameter-Efficient FineTuning (PEFT) and Model Compression (MC), among others. Most methods typically focus on one…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Nazia Tasnim , Shrimai Prabhumoye , Bryan A. Plummer

In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…

Computation · Statistics 2018-11-01 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson , Saptarshi Das , Paul Gelderblom

Distinguishing two candidate models is a fundamental and practically important statistical problem. Error rate control is crucial to the testing logic but, in complex nonparametric settings, can be difficult to achieve, especially when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-09 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

An empirical Bayes problem has an unknown prior to be estimated from data. The predictive recursion (PR) algorithm provides fast nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions and is ideally suited for empirical Bayes applications. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-19 Ryan Martin

Within Bayesian nonparametrics, dependent Dirichlet process mixture models provide a highly flexible approach for conducting inference about the conditional density function. However, several formulations of this class make either rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 María Xosé Rodríguez-Álvarez , Vanda Inácio , Nadja Klein

Density ratio estimation (DRE) is a paramount task in machine learning, for its broad applications across multiple domains, such as covariate shift adaptation, causal inference, independence tests and beyond. Parametric methods for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Meilin Wang , Wei Huang , Mingming Gong , Zheng Zhang

While substantial progress has been made in the absolute performance of localization and Visual Place Recognition (VPR) techniques, it is becoming increasingly clear from translating these systems into applications that other capabilities…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Helen Carson , Jason J. Ford , Michael Milford

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-26 Federico Bassetti , Roberto Casarin , Francesco Ravazzolo

Probabilistic Regression refers to predicting a full probability density function for the target conditional on the features. We present a nonparametric approach to this problem which combines base classifiers (typically gradient boosted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-31 Brian Lucena

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Sahra Ghalebikesabi , Chris Holmes , Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

This paper proposes a mechanism to fine-tune convex approximations of probabilistic reachable sets (PRS) of uncertain dynamic systems. We consider the case of unbounded uncertainties, for which it may be impossible to find a bounded…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Pengcheng Wu , Sonia Martinez , Jun Chen

Longitudinal and high-dimensional measurements have become increasingly common in biomedical research. However, methods to predict survival outcomes using covariates that are both longitudinal and high-dimensional are currently missing. In…

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification, but accurate posterior sampling with MCMC can be computationally prohibitive for modern applications. Variational inference (VI) offers a scalable alternative and often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Laura Battaglia , Stefano Cortinovis , Chris Holmes , David T. Frazier , Jack Jewson
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