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We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-13 Yury Polyanskiy , Yihong Wu

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is an effective heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Hamish Flynn , Joe Watson , Ingmar Posner , Jan Peters

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-26 Zi Wang , Beomjoon Kim , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

We study the sequential general online regression, known also as the sequential probability assignments, under logarithmic loss when compared against a broad class of experts. We focus on obtaining tight, often matching, lower and upper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-02 Changlong Wu , Mohsen Heidari , Ananth Grama , Wojciech Szpankowski

We present a new algorithm based on posterior sampling for learning in Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDP) in the infinite-horizon undiscounted setting. The algorithm achieves near-optimal regret bounds while being advantageous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Danil Provodin , Maurits Kaptein , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Bayesian inference with empirical likelihood faces a challenge as the posterior domain is a proper subset of the original parameter space due to the convex hull constraint. We propose a regularized exponentially tilted empirical likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Eunseop Kim , Steven N. MacEachern , Mario Peruggia

Most bandit algorithm designs are purely theoretical. Therefore, they have strong regret guarantees, but also are often too conservative in practice. In this work, we pioneer the idea of algorithm design by minimizing the empirical Bayes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-12 Chih-Wei Hsu , Branislav Kveton , Ofer Meshi , Martin Mladenov , Csaba Szepesvari

Bayesian optimization (BO) with Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models is a powerful black-box optimization method. Acquisition functions are a critical part of a BO algorithm as they determine how the new samples are selected. Some of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Jingyi Wang , Haowei Wang , Cosmin G. Petra , Nai-Yuan Chiang

Consider the sequential optimization of an expensive to evaluate and possibly non-convex objective function $f$ from noisy feedback, that can be considered as a continuum-armed bandit problem. Upper bounds on the regret performance of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-11 Sattar Vakili , Kia Khezeli , Victor Picheny

This paper addresses the Bayesian optimization problem (also referred to as the Bayesian setting of the Gaussian process bandit), where the learner seeks to minimize the regret under a function drawn from a known Gaussian process (GP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Shogo Iwazaki

Bayesian optimization is a framework for global search via maximum a posteriori updates rather than simulated annealing, and has gained prominence for decision-making under uncertainty. In this work, we cast Bayesian optimization as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-24 Amrit Singh Bedi , Dheeraj Peddireddy , Vaneet Aggarwal , Brian M. Sadler , Alec Koppel

We study a widely used Bayesian optimization method, Gaussian process Thompson sampling (GP-TS), under the assumption that the objective function is a sample path from a GP. Compared with the GP upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-11 Shion Takeno , Shogo Iwazaki

This paper analyzes the problem of Gaussian process (GP) bandits with deterministic observations. The analysis uses a branch and bound algorithm that is related to the UCB algorithm of (Srinivas et al, 2010). For GPs with Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Nando de Freitas , Alex Smola , Masrour Zoghi

This guide provides a reference for high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization (ERM). The presentation is modular: we begin with intuition and general proof strategies, then state broadly applicable guarantees under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Lars van der Laan

We consider the fixed-budget best arm identification problem with rewards following normal distributions. In this problem, the forecaster is given $K$ arms (or treatments) and $T$ time steps. The forecaster attempts to find the arm with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-16 Junpei Komiyama

We consider the problem of Bayesian optimization of a one-dimensional Brownian motion in which the $T$ adaptively chosen observations are corrupted by Gaussian noise. We show that as the smallest possible expected cumulative regret and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Zexin Wang , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Jonathan Scarlett

In this paper, we consider the problem of sequentially optimizing a black-box function $f$ based on noisy samples and bandit feedback. We assume that $f$ is smooth in the sense of having a bounded norm in some reproducing kernel Hilbert…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-01 Jonathan Scarlett , Ilijia Bogunovic , Volkan Cevher

This paper analyses the problem of Gaussian process (GP) bandits with deterministic observations. The analysis uses a branch and bound algorithm that is related to the UCB algorithm of (Srinivas et al., 2010). For GPs with Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-12 Nando de Freitas , Alex Smola , Masrour Zoghi

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used iterative black-box optimization method that utilizes Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models. In practice, BO is typically terminated after a fixed evaluation budget is exhausted, which can incur…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Haowei Wang , Jingyi Wang , Qiyu Wei

Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate Bayesian inference have been widely used in real-world applications. However, there is a large discrepancy between the superior practical performance of these approaches and their theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Amirhossein Meisami , Haofeng Zhang
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