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We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km…

Data assimilation plays a crucial role in numerical modeling, enabling the integration of real-world observations into mathematical models to enhance the accuracy and predictive capabilities of simulations. This approach is widely applied…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Alexander Lobbe , Dan Crisan , Oana Lang

Cloud cover plays a critical role in weather prediction and impacts several sectors, including agriculture, solar power generation, and aviation. Despite advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, forecasting total cloud…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-20 Mikko Partio , Leila Hieta , Anniina Kokkonen

Trajectory prediction plays a vital role in automotive radar systems, facilitating precise tracking and decision-making in autonomous driving. Generative adversarial networks with the ability to learn a distribution over future trajectories…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Peiyuan Zhu , Fengxia Han , Hao Deng

Three-dimensional geometric data offer an excellent domain for studying representation learning and generative modeling. In this paper, we look at geometric data represented as point clouds. We introduce a deep AutoEncoder (AE) network with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-06-13 Panos Achlioptas , Olga Diamanti , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Leonidas Guibas

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 A. Navarra , G. G. Navarra

Interactions between different components of the Earth System (e.g. ocean, atmosphere, land and cryosphere) are a crucial driver of global weather patterns. Modern Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems typically run separate models of…

Data-driven emulators are increasingly being used to learn and emulate physics-based simulations, reducing computational expense and run time. Here, we present a structured way to improve the quality of these high-dimensional emulated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Nawid Keshtmand , Elena Fillola , Jeffrey Nicholas Clark , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Matthew Rigby

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Recent generative AI models have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in language and visual understanding. However, although these models can generate realistic visual content, their spatial scale remains confined to bounded environments,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Jinqi Cao , Zhiping Yu , Baihong Lin , Chenyang Liu , Zhenwei Shi , Zhengxia Zou

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-25 Mária Lakatos , Sebastian Lerch , Stephan Hemri , Sándor Baran

A generative modeling framework is proposed that combines diffusion models and manifold learning to efficiently sample data densities on manifolds. The approach utilizes Diffusion Maps to uncover possible low-dimensional underlying (latent)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Dimitris G. Giovanis , Ellis Crabtree , Roger G. Ghanem , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Machine-learnt weather prediction (MLWP) models are now well established as being competitive with conventional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the medium range. However, there is still much uncertainty as to how this…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-26 Bobby Antonio , Kristian Strommen , Hannah M. Christensen

This study presents a novel generative modeling approach to rainfall-runoff modeling, focusing on the synthesis of realistic daily catchment runoff time series in response to catchment-averaged climate forcing. Unlike traditional…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-09-11 Yang Yang , Ting Fong May Chui

The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-08 Stephan Rasp , Michael S. Pritchard , Pierre Gentine

Scattering transforms are a new type of summary statistics recently developed for the study of highly non-Gaussian processes, which have been shown to be very promising for astrophysical studies. In particular, they allow one to build…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-22 Louise Mousset , Erwan Allys , Matthew A. Price , Jonathan Aumont , Jean-Marc Delouis , Ludovic Montier , Jason D. McEwen

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-16 Peter Vogel , Peter Knippertz , Andreas H. Fink , Andreas Schlueter , Tilmann Gneiting

Understanding how droughts may change in the future is essential for anticipating and mitigating their adverse impacts. However, robust climate projections require large amounts of high-resolution climate simulations, particularly for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-29 Hamish Lewis , Neelesh Rampal , Peter B. Gibson , Luke J. Harrington , Chiara M. Holgate , Anna Ukkola , Nicola M. Maher

Although by now the ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting is the most advanced approach to weather prediction, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-18 Ágnes Baran , Sándor Baran

Accurate weather forecasting holds significant importance, serving as a crucial tool for decision-making in various industrial sectors. The limitations of statistical models, assuming independence among data points, highlight the need for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Anuvab Sen , Udayon Sen , Mayukhi Paul , Apurba Prasad Padhy , Sujith Sai , Aakash Mallik , Chhandak Mallick