Related papers: Minimum Specification Perturbation: Robustness as …
Composite likelihoods are a class of alternatives to the full likelihood which are widely used in many situations in which the likelihood itself is intractable. A composite likelihood may be computed without the need to specify the full…
We adopt and expand McDonald's (2011) regression framework for measurement precision, integrating two key perspectives: (a) reliability of observed scores and (b) optimal prediction of latent scores. Reliability arises from a measurement…
Reinforcement learning (RL) for reachability specifications is fundamental in sequential decision-making, yet theoretical guarantees remain less explored. A recent work achieves asymptotic convergence to optimal policies. However, this…
Studying the stability of partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with respect to perturbations in either transition or observation kernels is a significant problem. While asymptotic robustness/stability results as approximate…
This paper develops a methodology for robust Bayesian inference through the use of disparities. Metrics such as Hellinger distance and negative exponential disparity have a long history in robust estimation in frequentist inference. We…
Recent work in adversarial robustness suggests that natural data distributions are localized, i.e., they place high probability in small volume regions of the input space, and that this property can be utilized for designing classifiers…
A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…
This paper addresses a key limitation in existing counterfactual inference methods for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Current approaches assume a specific causal model to make counterfactuals identifiable. However, there are usually many…
We study the continuity properties of optimal solutions to stochastic control problems with respect to initial probability measures and applications of these to the robustness of optimal control policies applied to systems with incomplete…
Many AI synthesis problems such as planning or scheduling may be modelized as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP). A CSP is typically defined as the problem of finding any consistent labeling for a fixed set of variables satisfying all…
Many methods of estimating causal models do not provide estimates of confidence in the resulting model. In this work, a metric is proposed for validating the output of a causal model fit; the robustness of the model structure with resampled…
Optimization under uncertainty and risk is indispensable in many practical situations. Our paper addresses stability of optimization problems using composite risk functionals which are subjected to measure perturbations. Our main focus is…
The maximum softmax probability (MSP) represents a default approach when evaluating uncertainty quantification for language model generation with structured output. Although cheap, it is often miscalibrated. Methods that probe the model's…
In Bayesian networks, a Most Probable Explanation (MPE) is a complete variable instantiation with a highest probability given the current evidence. In this paper, we discuss the problem of finding robustness conditions of the MPE under…
Rationalization is a self-explaining framework for NLP models. Conventional work typically uses the maximum mutual information (MMI) criterion to find the rationale that is most indicative of the target label. However, this criterion can be…
When a statistical model $\{P_{\theta} : \theta \in \Theta\}$ lacks analytically tractable likelihoods, parametric statistical inference based on data generated from an unknown underlying distribution $P$ can still be performed as long as…
We consider the problem of learning the interaction strength between the nodes of a network based on dependent binary observations residing on these nodes, generated from a Markov Random Field (MRF). Since these observations can possibly be…
This paper introduces the $f$-sensitivity model, a new sensitivity model that characterizes the violation of unconfoundedness in causal inference. It assumes the selection bias due to unmeasured confounding is bounded "on average"; compared…
Random constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) such as random $3$-SAT are conjectured to be computationally intractable. The average case hardness of random $3$-SAT and other CSPs has broad and far-reaching implications on problems in…
A robust minimax test for two composite hypotheses, which are determined by the neighborhoods of two nominal distributions with respect to a set of distances - called $\alpha-$divergence distances, is proposed. Sion's minimax theorem is…