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Density estimation, which estimates the distribution of data, is an important category of probabilistic machine learning. A family of density estimators is mixture models, such as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) by expectation maximization.…

We study the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm for sequential data assimilation in a general situation, that is, for nonlinear forecast and measurement models with non-additive and non-Gaussian noises. Such applications traditionally…

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to…

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a widely used method for data assimilation in high-dimensional systems, with an ensemble update step equivalent to an empirical version of the Matheron update popular in Gaussian process regression -- a…

Ensemble data assimilation methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are a key component of probabilistic weather forecasting. They represent the uncertainty in the initial conditions by an ensemble which incorporates information…

Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state of the system is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice.…

Learning permutations is fundamental to sorting, ranking, and matching, but existing differentiable methods based on entropy-regularized Sinkhorn produce a single softened solution and collapse under ambiguity. We present PermFlow, a…

In this work, a kernel-based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Probability Hypothesis Density (EnGM-PHD) filter is presented for multi-target filtering applications. The EnGM-PHD filter combines the Gaussian-mixture-based techniques of the Gaussian…

This work introduces a novel probabilistic deep learning technique called deep Gaussian mixture ensembles (DGMEs), which enables accurate quantification of both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. By assuming the data generating process…

Ensemble Kalman filters are based on a Gaussian assumption, which can limit their performance in some non-Gaussian settings. This paper reviews two nonlinear, non-Gaussian extensions of the Ensemble Kalman Filter: Gaussian anamorphosis (GA)…

Data assimilation algorithms integrate prior information from numerical model simulations with observed data. Ensemble-based filters, regarded as state-of-the-art, are widely employed for large-scale estimation tasks in disciplines such as…

Diffusion models approximate the denoising distribution as a Gaussian and predict its mean, whereas flow matching models reparameterize the Gaussian mean as flow velocity. However, they underperform in few-step sampling due to…

Resampling is a key component of sample-based recursive state estimation in particle filters. Recent work explores differentiable particle filters for end-to-end learning. However, resampling remains a challenge in these works, as it is…

In this paper, we study the problem of learning one-dimensional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with a specific focus on estimating both the model order and the mixing distribution from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…

This paper presents a seamless algorithm for the application of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to the ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF). The algorithm uses a combination of optimal coupling transformations between coarse…

Accurate modeling and prediction of complex physical systems often rely on data assimilation techniques to correct errors inherent in model simulations. Traditional methods like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its variants as well as…

We propose an Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) learning algorithm, based on our previous work of GMM expansion idea. The new algorithm brings more robustness and simplicity than classic Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. It also improves…

Accurate estimation and forecasting of energy consumption are important for power-system operation, planning, and demand-side management. In practice, however, complete and timely measurements may not always be available, and the observed…

By chaining a sequence of differentiable invertible transformations, normalizing flows (NF) provide an expressive method of posterior approximation, exact density evaluation, and sampling. The trend in normalizing flow literature has been…

Filtering - the task of estimating the conditional distribution for states of a dynamical system given partial and noisy observations - is important in many areas of science and engineering, including weather and climate prediction.…