Related papers: Arbitrage Analysis in Polymarket NBA Markets
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper…
We study the microstructure of Polymarket, the largest on-chain prediction market, using a continuous tick-level archive of the public order-book feed (30 billion events over 52 days) joined to the authoritative on-chain trade record. On a…
Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decomposition that separates exchange-equivalent turnover from…
Prediction markets are markets for trading claims on future events, such as presidential elections, and their prices provide continuously updated signals of collective beliefs. In decentralized platforms such as Polymarket, the market…
It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to…
Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To demonstrate that inefficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that generates above market returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF,…
Increased data availability has stimulated the interest in studying sports prediction problems via analytical approaches; in particular, with machine learning and simulation. We characterize several models that have been proposed in the…
Predicting the outcomes of future events is a challenging problem for which a variety of solution methods have been explored and attempted. We present an empirical comparison of a variety of online and offline adaptive algorithms for…
We present a new combinatorial market maker that operates arbitrage-free combinatorial prediction markets specified by integer programs. Although the problem of arbitrage-free pricing, while maintaining a bound on the subsidy provided by…
Auctions are modeled as Bayesian games with continuous type and action spaces. Determining equilibria in auction games is computationally hard in general and no exact solution theory is known. We introduce an algorithmic framework in which…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…
NBA franchise management is not a sequence of independent tasks, but a single dynamic control problem in which roster construction, cash-flow discipline, media strategy, external market shocks, and player-health uncertainty interact over…
Much of modern society is founded on orchestrating institutions that produce social goods by fostering motivated teams, pitting them against each other, and distributing the fruits of the arms races that ensue. However, even when the…
In this paper, we present Mambanet: a hybrid neural network for predicting the outcomes of Basketball games. Contrary to other studies, which focus primarily on season games, this study investigates playoff games. MambaNet is a hybrid…
Using the most comprehensive source of commercially available data on the US National Market System, we analyze all quotes and trades associated with Dow 30 stocks in 2016 from the vantage point of a single and fixed frame of reference. We…
Problem definition: Professional sports leagues may be suspended due to various reasons such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic. A critical question the league must address when re-opening is how to appropriately select a subset of the…
Arbitrage can arise from the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same asset in different markets in order to profit from a difference in its price. This work systematically reviews arbitrage opportunities between Automated Market Makers…
We investigate triangular arbitrage within the spot foreign exchange market using high-frequency executable prices. We show that triangular arbitrage opportunities do exist, but that most have short durations and small magnitudes. We find…
We study the problem of finding Stackelberg equilibria in games with a massive number of players. So far, the only known game instances in which the problem is solved in polynomial time are some particular congestion games. However, a…
Prediction markets are powerful mechanisms for information aggregation, but existing designs are optimized for single-event contracts. In practice, traders frequently express beliefs about joint outcomes - through parlays in sports,…