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Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Xuhui Fan , Edwin V. Bonilla , Terence J. O'Kane , Scott A. Sisson

In this paper, we propose a novel method of model-based time series clustering with mixtures of general state space models (MSSMs). Each component of MSSMs is associated with each cluster. An advantage of the proposed method is that it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Ryoichi Ishizuka , Takashi Imai , Kaoru Kawamoto

This paper studies inference in two-stage randomized experiments under covariate-adaptive randomization. In the initial stage of this experimental design, clusters (e.g., households, schools, or graph partitions) are stratified and randomly…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-16 Jizhou Liu

In experimental causal inference, we distinguish between two sources of uncertainty: design uncertainty, due to the treatment assignment mechanism, and sampling uncertainty, when the sample is drawn from a super-population. This distinction…

Multiple imputation has become one of the most popular approaches for handling missing data in statistical analyses. Part of this success is due to Rubin's simple combination rules. These give frequentist valid inferences when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-28 Jonathan W. Bartlett , Rachael A. Hughes

Several new methods have been proposed for performing valid inference after model selection. An older method is sampling splitting: use part of the data for model selection and part for inference. In this paper we revisit sample splitting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-04 Alessandro Rinaldo , Larry Wasserman , Max G'Sell , Jing Lei

Strict stationarity is a common assumption used in the time series literature in order to derive asymptotic distributional results for second-order statistics, like sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations. Focusing on weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Yunyi Zhang , Efstathios Paparoditis , Dimitris N. Politis

This paper presents and analyzes an approach to cluster-based inference for dependent data. The primary setting considered here is with spatially indexed data in which the dependence structure of observed random variables is characterized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-16 Jianfei Cao , Christian Hansen , Damian Kozbur , Lucciano Villacorta

We provide computationally attractive methods to obtain jackknife-based cluster-robust variance matrix estimators (CRVEs) for linear regression models estimated by least squares. We also propose several new variants of the wild cluster…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-14 James G. MacKinnon , Morten Ørregaard Nielsen , Matthew D. Webb

Accurate statistical inference in logistic regression models remains a critical challenge when the ratio between the number of parameters and sample size is not negligible. This is because approximations based on either classical asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-19 Qian Zhao , Emmanuel J. Candes

In this paper, we employ variational arguments to establish a connection between ensemble methods for Neural Networks and Bayesian inference. We consider an ensemble-based scheme where each model/particle corresponds to a perturbation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Dimitrios Milios , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

We investigate the problem of statistical inference for logistic regression with high-dimensional covariates in settings where dependence among individuals is induced by an underlying Markov random field. Going beyond the pairwise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-23 Josh Miles , Sohom Bhattacharya

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Nevertheless, in studies that are aimed at examining adverse effects of interventions, such trials are often impractical because of ethical and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 Anthony D. Scotina , Andrew R. Zullo , Robert J. Smith , Roee Gutman

The paper establishes the central limit theorems and proposes how to perform valid inference in factor models. We consider a setting where many counties/regions/assets are observed for many time periods, and when estimation of a global…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-22 Stanislav Anatolyev , Anna Mikusheva

Generalized linear model or GLM constitutes a large class of models and essentially extends the ordinary linear regression by connecting the mean of the response variable with the covariate through appropriate link functions. On the other…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Mayukh Choudhury , Debraj Das

The multivariate linear regression model is an important tool for investigating relationships between several response variables and several predictor variables. The primary interest is in inference about the unknown regression coefficient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-13 Daniel J. Eck

A general framework for dealing with both linear regression and clustering problems is described. It includes Gaussian clusterwise linear regression analysis with random covariates and cluster analysis via Gaussian mixture models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-13 Giuliano Galimberti , Annamaria Manisi , Gabriele Soffritti

We consider continuous-time models with a large panel of moment conditions, where the structural parameter depends on a set of characteristics, whose effects are of interest. The leading example is the linear factor model in financial…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-12-04 Yuan Liao , Xiye Yang

A new computation method of frequentist $p$-values and Bayesian posterior probabilities based on the bootstrap probability is discussed for the multivariate normal model with unknown expectation parameter vector. The null hypothesis is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Hidetoshi Shimodaira

While researchers commonly use the bootstrap for statistical inference, many of us have realized that the standard bootstrap, in general, does not work for Chatterjee's rank correlation. In this paper, we provide proof of this issue under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Zhexiao Lin , Fang Han