Related papers: Concentration and Calibration in Predictive Bayesi…
Posterior probabilistic statistical inference without priors is an important but so far elusive goal. Fisher's fiducial inference, Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions, and Bayesian inference with default priors are attempts to…
Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…
Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…
Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…
Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for…
We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…
Real-world problems, often couched as machine learning applications, involve quantities of interest that have real-world meaning, independent of any statistical model. To avoid potential model misspecification bias or over-complicating the…
We propose a new empirical Bayes approach for inference in the $p \gg n$ normal linear model. The novelty is the use of data in the prior in two ways, for centering and regularization. Under suitable sparsity assumptions, we establish a…
Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of…
Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) attempts to address model misspecification in a standard Bayesian setup by tempering the likelihood. The likelihood is raised to a fractional power, called the learning rate, which reduces its importance…
Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…
We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…
Generalized Bayesian inference (GBI) is an alternative inference framework motivated by robustness to modeling errors, where a specific loss function is used to link the model parameters with observed data, instead of the log-likelihood…
Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…
Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…
In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…
A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…
Discovery of an accurate causal Bayesian network structure from observational data can be useful in many areas of science. Often the discoveries are made under uncertainty, which can be expressed as probabilities. To guide the use of such…
Beyond estimating parameters of interest from data, one of the key goals of statistical inference is to properly quantify uncertainty in these estimates. In Bayesian inference, this uncertainty is provided by the posterior distribution, the…